A European Vacation: Quarter Finals Part 2

Due to our hectic travel schedules for this upcoming weekend I am going to be doing this post without my learned colleague MJ. The Second half of the bracket we have two mega clashes of nations rich in footballing tradition: Spain vs. France and Italy vs. England.

SPAIN VS. FRANCE

This is the most mouth-watering match-up of the round, and could be the best game of the tournament. Spain showed a glimpse of what it could do against Ireland completing upwards of 750 passes, a new tournament record. But against Italy and Croatia the Spanish looked stuck in training mode. They seemed content to do just enough, which obviously is all you need to do to advance, but the complacency could come back to bite them. They have really missed David Villa up front. Silva is just not a consistent enough goal threat and seems afraid to shoot most of the time. Torres showed what he can do, but the major difference between him and Villa is that Villa will make a chance out of anything, whereas Torres clearly has a few particular methods of getting the shot he wants and if he can't quite get the service he wants he gets frustrated. I think Fernando LLorente would do well to get a chance against France at some point.

The French were going to be my dark horse candidate after the first two games in the group stage. Then they came out against Sweden and let played a stinker, throwing away a 23 match unbeaten streak. France's problem is in the midfield: they have a great holding combo in Diarra or M'Vila, and they have great wingers in Menez and Ribery. There is no one in the middle to connect the dots. Nasri has been totally anonymous except for his brief brilliance against England. Cabaye has really been the workhorse, yet he didn't play against Sweden, so there are some question marks. Without the middle man it make Karim Benzema drop too deep to get the ball, taking away his cutting edge. Also, I think we can say the French defense is shaky at best.

What does this mean for the game? If Spain can approach the form that they are capable of, they could boss the midfield and make France play on the counter attack. This is not a problem for the French because it will let Ribery and Menez latch on to longer balls and hit the Spanish where they are weakest: transition defense. Pique has a bad habit of pushing up to the 18 yard box during long spells of possession. That being said, if Spain are pinging their passes around and moving like they did against Ireland it could be 2-0 before France even gets a shot. I predict that Spain will win in a nervy affair.

ITALY VS. ENGLAND

I have a lot less to say about these two teams, as I don't have a love affair with them like I do with the Spanish. The biggest thing that stuck out to me with both of these teams in the group stages is that England cannot hold the ball. They are still living in a world of smash and grab. Generally, this does not win tournaments (with notable exceptions: Greece in Euro 2004, Italy in World Cup 2006, Chelsea in the 2012 Champions League). The English will be content to sit back and play their energetic defense then get their chances when they can. But they rely a lot on Steven Gerrard playing the perfect pass for them to score. And while Italian teams generally have trouble with the pace the English play at, this Italian team is excellent in possession, working around the ageless Pirlo. Balotelli and Cassano could be a handful for Lescott and Terry, who is easily beaten by speed. In the end I think the Italians learn from their mistake against Croatia in trying to play for 1-0, and use constant pressure to wear out the England defense. It will break the English hearts, which seem to think this team will win it all all of the sudden, but Italy are the more technically gifted and better attacking side (who would have every thought those words would make it to print?). Italy win 2-0.

A European Vacation: The Quarters Part 1

The Group Stage is over. It's now win or go home for the 8 teams remaining in Euro 2012. The top half of the bracket features Germany vs. Greece and Czech Republic vs. Portugal. Here is our look at each matchup.

GERMANY VS. GREECE

MJ: Greece finished their group stage with great resolve and a win. They stole the second quarter-final spot away from Russia and will need every measurable unit of momentum to stand a chance against the Germans. Georgios Samaras put in the performance of his life against the Russians. Billed as a forward he played in a slightly more withdrawn role dominating 50/50 balls, cutting off passing lanes, and making tackles throughout the midfield. Samaras's possession, dribbling, and hold up play was equally impressive and ever frustrating for the Russians trying to get back into their last game. Sadly, the gulf of class may expose the Greeks and overwhelm even their mighty hearts. It isn't big money, but it is easy money to pick Germany as the winner here. Mario Gomez has boldly staked his claim as the number one strike option over Miroslav Klose, controversial but apt. Gomez leading the tournament with three goals is a about to run away with scoring honors, considering the other players on three goals have all been eliminated. Schweinsteiger has covered every inch of the pitch he's touched, and has assisted in two of his three games so far. Names like Lukas Podolski, whose netted already, and Thomas Muller are likely to pop in big moments leaving Greece packing come Friday night.

MTA: Greek Jesus (aka Samaras) really came alive that last game after a pretty much anonymous contribution in the first two matches. He will be key against a German midfield that can possess the ball as well as any team on the planet. The fact that Mario Gomez is finally putting in goals in pressure situations should scare anyone, since that was the biggest knock against him. With Schweinsteiger bossing the pitch and driving the Germans forward from the back he provides Ozil and Muller the freedom to wreak havoc in the final third. The Greek defense will have their hands full. But this team has shades of 2004 in them (and a few of the same players). It defends extremely well and has the pluck to nip a goal on the counter with Samaras in the midfield and the likes of Gekas and Salpigidis up front ready to pounce on any ball near them. The Germans have an incredible defender in Badstuber and he cannot be caught napping by his squad's superiority in possession. The one concern I have about the Germans is they have looked like they were playing in 3rd gear at best in the group stages, which is scary, but they will need to flip it into 5th gear if they want to succeed in this tournament. Can they find that switch? If Greece is going to win this it's going to be 1-0. If not, it could be a long night for a country already pretty blue.

CZECH REPUBLIC VS. PORTUGAL

MJ: Czech Republic vs. Portugal carries a similar underdog vs. heavyweight fixture as Germany vs. Greece. Czech Republic did well winning two games to get through their group but similar to Greece, they now face a bigger, stronger, faster team. Tomas Rosicky is in doubt with an achilles tendon injury, a massive blow to the midfield and engine of the team. Petr Cech will have his hands full with the explosive (although sometimes stagnant?) nature of the Portugese attack. In this game, surely Ronaldo, Nani, and Postiga will be put in on goal and Cech has the weight of the Czech Republic on his shoulders to stop shots. Ronaldo finally finding form, netting twice against the Dutch may prove to the be the catalyst to a breakout tournament at the international level. Like the Greeks, the Czech's will need to be extremely focused, determined, and prepared to play behind the ball for large stretches of the game. Frustrating their opponents is the key and any chances must be taken like its their last.

MTA: The Czechs did well to shake off the embarrassment of the opening game against Russia and put in two great defensive outings. However, Cech has shown flashes of his old self, letting in 4 against Russia and a howler against the Greeks. The question will be if Cristiano Ronaldo continues his form, or if he reverts back to aimless runs with useless step-overs that end in off target shots. He is my leading candidate for miss of the tournament for his sitter against Denmark. If the good CR shows up it will certainly be curtains for the Czechs as that defense can be burnt by speed. The Portuguese are also suspect at the back from what I have seen; if you put shots on goal, their keeper can't handle them. The problem has been no one has put shots on goal against them. The team thrives on the dark arts of diving, feigning injury, and badgering the referees. I would bet if they played Italy the over/under for times the stretcher took someone off the field then he hops off the stretcher as soon as it reaches the sideline would be 6 and I'm taking the over. The Portuguese play a dirty brand of football that is infuriating to watch, but it has gotten them this far. Unless the officials wise up to their tactics (unlikely) and carding them for dives and dissent they will keep playing and keep winning. They are now one of my dark horses to make the final.

European Vacation Part 4

MTA: Time for the fourth and final group of these European Championships, Group D. The players here: Ukraine, Sweden, France, and England.

Ukraine are the other host nation, which is definitely going to help raise their play. There aren't a lot of names in this team only Andriy Shevchenko and Andriy Voronin. Unfortunately for the Ukrainians it's no longer the aughts and these two strikers have seen their better days. Still, there is going to be plenty of feistiness in this side. Every year in the Champions League Dynamo Kiev or Shaktar Donetsk make great showings, often making it to the knock-out rounds. Since this team is loaded with players from both, don't expect them to go quietly into the good night, especially with their mothers, brothers, counsins, aunts, uncles, sisters, fathers, and even gym teachers in the stands cheering them on. I would not be shocked to see a few shockers from this team, but don't count on it.

Sweden is in a similar position as the Ukraine: two big guns up top, with little else to fill in behind. The difference is that Sweden's two forwards are in the prime of their careers. Johan Elmander had a fantastic season for Galatasaray in Turkey, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic has found new life as a false 9 for AC Milan, often driving the action instead of being the big, lolloping target man he was at Barca and stops previous. His ability to let the game come to him and not force it, will be huge since he will be relying on Kim Kallstrom and Sebastian Larsson to provide the service from the midfield. Both are more than capable players when they are in form, but that is a big if. If there was going to be an upset in this group however, I would pick Sweden to nick one of the other two "powerhouses." Their defense will be tough with a good mix of young athletic defenders like Martin Olsson or Andreas Granqvist and experience in Jonas Olsson (no relation).

Next we look at France. France is starting to challenge groupmates England for the spot Spain used to occupy: perennial under achievers. After the embarrassment at the World Cup, where players openly rebelled, the French Football Federation brought in Laurent Blanc to try to right the ship; it hasn't gone as smoothly as they would have liked. They qualified for this tournament as group winners, but there wasn't much talent there to challenge them. That being said there is plenty of talent in the side and only recent history of apathy and cancerous teammates leads me to believe they won't breeze through this group like they should. Karim Benzema put in the goals all year for Real Madrid, and is still only 24. There will be plenty to choose from in the midfield including Samir Nasri, Florent Malouda, and Hatem Ben Arfa, who all saw great success for their EPL clubs this year. There is also Bayern Munich's Franck Ribery, who at one time was one of the most dangerous wingers in the world, but his cancerous antics in South Africa make me question if it is really worth it having him in the dressing room. It is the defense of this team that worries me. Laurent Koscielny really came into his own for Arsenal and should be great for Les Bleus. But the players around him are the shaky ones. Patrice Evra is not only a trouble maker, but has clearly lost three steps. Philippe Mexes was once considered the best up-and-coming defender in the world, yet he never made it; he has been decent for AC Milan these past years, but I would not call him the defensive bedrock he was tipped to be. Hugo Lloris will be fine between the sticks, but he could be called on a little too often. I pick France to make it out, but very cautiously.

Lastly, there is England. Has the English media's downplaying of England chances officially become a reverse jinx attempt? Every English pundit I've heard talk about this team is saying not to expect much, but their tone clearly is one of "I am just saying this because I have to I really expect big things." Well I don't. Roy Hodgson is going to be a very good English manager because he will set a vision for what he wants this team to do, something Capello never did. The problem is, he just started a six weeks ago. England also have a personnel problem. Wayne Rooney's temper cost him the first two games. Frank Lampard is out (but that could be a blessing because now Roy won't have to try to play him and Steven Gerrard at the same time, which never works like it should). And Gary Cahill just broke his jaw in two places to punch a hole in the defense. Like France there is plenty of talent here, but like France there is an attitude concern. Rooney, Gerrard, Ashley Cole, all have a history of acting out when they don't get their way (Gerrard once punched a night club DJ for not playing Phil Collins). But the biggest offender is former captain, John Terry. He regularly orchestrates to get Chelsea managers fired because they don't bow to his every wish, he cheats on his wife with his teammate's girlfriend, and he is under investigation by the government for racially abusing former England mate Rio Ferdinand's brother. Spain learned a long time ago that dressing room harmony was the key to unlocking hoards of talent. England won't reach that upper echelon again as long as they have their bad apples. All that said, there are plenty of workers in the squad. Andy Carroll has recently found some form and his efforts in Rooney's absence may make the difference. Scott Parker is the consumate professional and a beast of a midfielder who can play any role. And the defense will be headed by Man City duo of Joleon Lescott, who was phenomenal in the title run, and keeper Joe Hart. In the end I think England do make it out before the bus crashes.

MJ: The French have a fresh new face. Last World Cup, manager Raymond Domenech and 'surprise surprise' Patrice Evra completely derailed the concept of team unity. Two years later, Domenech is out, Laurent Blanc widely popular player in his day and new manager is in. A proper balance in the squad has been implemented. A very attractive group of youngsters sprinkled in with some of the bigger names of European club football. Kareem Benzema is always a goal threat and should see loads of service from the likes or Ribery, Nasri, and Cabaye. Between the sticks Hugo Loris will make few mistakes of his own and the defensive options are a bit shakey for the French NT. Barca Sagna, one of the best rightbacks in the world will miss out. Koscienly will have loads of responsiblity for a newer NT member but coming off of a great club season at Arsenal he should be ready for the task. France has two of the brightest young stars and hottest transfer targets this summer in striker Oliver Giroud and defensive midfielder Yann M'Vila. If the likes of Ribery and Nasri can keep their head on straight, and remember this is a team effort, Les Blues may very well be Les Vainqueurs du Group D and more.

Oh, how the English media likes to make a soap opera of their national team. The knives are already out questioning the appointment of manager Roy Hodgson, who looks like he'd be more comfortable with his nose in a book rather than leading the Three Lions from the touchline at one of the biggest stages in international football. The player drama plentiful. John Terry facing racism charges, the Rooney clan dodging match fixing and illegal betting charges, and Rooney himself letting his temper ablaze stamping on a Montenegrin player's leg in a qualifier leaving him suspended for the group stage. The player injury worse, Lampard is out with a thigh issue. Cahill out with a broken jaw, ouch. Gareth Barry out. Still the group is a bit soft in England's favor. The current French squad is untested. Ukraine and Sweden are arguably small fish for the tournament. Some newer faces: Andy Carroll, Danny Welbeck, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will have a pretty heavy workload given their experience levels. England could crash out of this group, the English papers already have the headlines written, but most tip them to progress and when Rooney comes back a different team is risen.

The Swede speed are at odds to make it out of the group but, as rightly depicted above, the squad may have enough reslolute defenders and power up front to surprise spectators and pundits alike. Using a 4-4-1-1 giving Zlatan his creative freedom will cause loads of trouble for opponents defences who will in turn have difficulty breaking down the eight men they can quickly push back behind the ball. If Sebastian Larsson is deemed fit, the Swede's will have an incredible delivery man and freekick taker. This may be the perfect group for Sweden to show they should not be taken as lightly as they have been leading up to this tournament.

Concluding with the second host nation Ukraine one cannot stick their head in the sand and ignore the recent reports and even a BBC documentary on the civil state of Ukraine. Some not very pretty pictures have been painted of the Ukrainian soccer culture regarding ethnic tolerance and some rather barbaric supporter behavior. Hooliganism and its unfortunate mix with racism can sadly be seen in many more places than just the Ukraine. Hopefully, the tournament brings out the good in all the fans from different ends of the country, continent, and world and the unspeakable's are not spoken. It is the great Andriy Shevchenko's farewell bash and this group could be loaded with upsets and mixed results, which are the key ingredients to a wonderful tournament and any hope these hosts have for the knockout round.

That wraps up our preview. I want to thank MJ for his excellent work. Stay tuned as the tournament progresses for further analysis. Thanks for tuning in!

European Vacation Part 3

MTA: On to Group C! This group features holders and World Cup Champions Spain, 2006 World Cup champs Italy, Ireland and Croatia.

My beloved Spain is probably the quietest favorite in this tournament. They hold the two major trophies in international soccer, but no one seems to be picking them to win it again. And I am one of those people, as much as I hate to say it. The losses of David Villa up front and Carles Puyol in the back are huge red flags. Villa is Spain's all-time leading scorer and Puyol, like for his club FC Barcelona, adds a stability and fire-putting-out ability to a defense that otherwise likes to push up and leave gaps. That being said the roster is still stacked with some of the finest talent on the planet. A midfield that hinges on the amazing consistency of Xavi will never be out of a match. The man makes hundreds of passes a game and will rarely misplace the ball. He is a rock. Iniesta and Fabregas can provide plenty of creativity and firepower from the center of the park and Sergi Busquets and Xabi Alonso will provide plenty of cover for the back line. Pique has not had his best season at Barcelona, often forgetting he's not a striker while venturing too far up the pitch. Sergio Ramos has a similar problem, but both players have plenty of pace and guile to get themselves out of many situations and Iker Casillas is definitely top three best keepers in the world. Fernando Llorente was on fire for Athletic Bilbao this year, and if it hadn't been for Messi's ridiculous tally of 73 goals this year he would have had more media attention. I think they let him try to replace Villa and work Pedro and or Torres in around him. While Torres did struggle to find goals for Chelsea he did do a ton of the dirty work and provided a lot that didn't show up in the match report so he should be fine, especially since he did see some revival at the end of the campaign. There isn't any reason anyone should doubt Spain, and I'm sure they're using the lack of attention as motivation, it just seems hard to believe they will win three straight tournaments as you can only take everyone's best shot for so long.

Italy would have to be the other favorites to advance from this group. This isn't your granddaddy's Italy; this team will not rely on its defense to get it through with anti-football the country has made its name on. The Antonios (Cassano and Di Natale) up front will lead the way. Wild card Mario Balotelli looks to also make his mark, which I'm sure he will with either a fantastic goal or a fantastically stupid red card. The midfield will be headed by Andrea Pirlo, who will be the only deep lying midfielder of the group. Thiago Motta and Daniele De Rossi will be pushing forward every chance they can. The back will be lead by Gianluigi Buffon in goal, who once was impenetrable, has shown signs of a lost step as he's aged. Chiellini will look to dominate the back line after an impressive year with Juventus. This squad will definitely be more attacking but the problem will be consistency through the backbone of the team. There is also a match fixing scandal going on back home, which has taken some key players out of the squad. But last time there was a match fixing scandal in Italy, the national side lifted the World Cup trophy, so who knows how it will affect the players.

The next team is feel good story of the tournament, Ireland. After heartbreakingly sent home without qualifying for the World Cup due to a Thierry Henry handball that allowed him to score the winning goal in the playoff, it was nice to see the Irish make a tournament for the first time in ten years. They will be bouyed by the support of neutrals who will fall in love with their fans who will be there just to enjoy the party. The Irish will also benefit from manager Trapatoni's years of experience as the national coach of Italy. That being said, the squad Ireland are bringing to Poland and Ukraine, while well known, are not exactly world beaters. Keeper Shay Given was once the best goalie in England, now plies his trade at Aston Villa, who narrowly staved off relegation. Defenders John O'Shea and Richard Dunne (career leader in own goals in the EPL) have seen their better days. Names like Damien Duff and Stephen Hunt will look to control the midfield, which would be great if this were 2006. The strike force will be led by MLS star (never a good thing) Robbie Keane, and career lower EPL/ higher Championship players like Kevin Doyle and Shane Long. A result or two is all that I can expect from this team who will just be glad to be there.

Lastly, there's Croatia. Croatia's biggest name is on the outs coach/rock star Slaven Bilic. It is well believed he will be looking to make the jump to club managing which usually is a huge distraction for players. There is talent in the squad, despite the loss of striker Ivica Olic to a hamstring tear. Former Arsenal man Eduardo will be leaned on heavily to provide the offense. The Croats will need Luka Modric and Niko Kranjcar to play huge roles in midfield if they want any sort of success. And the defense will have to be dominated by out of form Vedran Corluka. There isn't a lot to say about Croatia. They will have high hopes but just not enough firepower to make it out of the group. They will battle Ireland for the honors of not last.

MJ: It is difficult to pick Spain winning a third consecutive major international tournament because it has never been done before. The Spanish National Team has been hit by a few crucial injuries in both attack and defense. Lastly, Jose Mourinho has made it his personal mission to disrupt and divide the Spanish nation, its fans, and players at the cost of club success for Real Madrid. Fatigue from a grueling season is always a speed bump in summer tournaments. Few teams match the output of energy Real Madrid and Barcelona players exert as both teams respectfully depend vastly on their starting eleven plus a few integral squad players. However, manager Vincent Del Bosque will not be able to fall back on any of the above referenced issues as excuses. It is a group Spain should easily get out of, and any momentum at all will help make those leggy feet fleet and rumblings of a history breaking victory will be omnipresent. Cesc Fabregas with another tournament winning assist would make this Gooner proud. The Italian national team is changing its stripes. A blend of spirited attack and solid defensive organization will be on display this tournament. The starting eleven possibilities give Cesare Prandelli a synergistic approach with the option in selecting both exciting young players and veteran stalwarts. Again, in a group where it is extremely easy to pick Spain and Italy as teams to progress, one should look a bit closer at the Italian team. They are currently being raked over the coals for another match fixing scandal and have not scored a goal in 300 minutes. The confidence the Italian players possess or lack there of will be the determing factor for their tournament. Will they coast into the knockout round on a foundation of scandal and offensive lapses or will the Azzurri put everything behind them, a la 2006, and make another defiant run at glory? The Republic of Ireland's WC qualifying pain was vindicated with their bearth into Euro '12. However, now that they have "arrived" where can they go? Their first game against Croatia will be massive and telling if either team has a chance to progress. It funnels down to Robbie Keane v. Luca Modric. They will not match up against each other too often on the pitch but they are the deciding players that need to be at full mast if a tournament opening win and any future upsets could be expected. Modric however, disappseared in the last third of his club season with Tottenham. In turn, Robbie Keane, heavily criticized for going to the LA Galaxy, has not taken his twiglight football all that seriously. Moreover, both players are capable of helping their team top the other. This opening match should be a cracker for both camps, unfortunately their next two games may already be over before the first whistle.

Stay tuned you loyal fan(s?), We have one group left! Look for it later this week.

A European Vacation Part 2

MTA: Now for Group B, or the Group of Death to end all Groups of Death. Three of the teams in this group featured in the knock-out rounds of Euro 2008 and World Cup 2010. The gladiators in this group are The Netherlands, Denmark, Germany and Portugal.

The Netherlands finished as runners up in South Africa and are looking to get the taste of a late Iniesta winner out of their mouth. This team has it all in the attacking half. Robin Van Persie showed that he literally cannot be stopped from scoring. He'll also have Dirk Kuyt and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar looking to remind the world, and suitors, who they are. Barcelona youngling Ibrahim Afellay can also be brought on to spark offense as he showed earlier this season before a knee injury sidelined him. The midfield is also an embarrassment of riches. Arjen Robben will be looking to show the world he is not haunted by his Champions League final performance, and Rafael van der Vaart will be squarely in the shop window as Tottenham didn't make the Champions League again. Wesley Sneijder is the forgotten man of European football, once a must have, now, after an average season at Inter he will be looking to find some form. The one weakness is the defense which will be led by the pedestrian Johnny Heitinga, but the midfielders Mark von Bommel and Nigel de Jong can provide enough cover, provided they refrain from karate practice and stay on the pitch. I pip them to move on if not win the group outright.

Denmark seems to be the also ran of this group, which is saying something since put them in another group and they would probably move on. Rommedahl and Bendter are the two big names up front, but both are streaky at best. Christian Poulsen will be the anchor in midfield, and while he had a decent season with the French club Evian, he's hardly the same man he used to be, but he will have the benefit of pairing up with club mate Thomas Kahlenberg. Never under estimate the power of playing club football together in international tournaments. The Danish D will be organized by Man U's Anders Lindegaard, who many thought should have been the Red Devils' starter over David de Gea, and Liverpool stalwart Daniel Agger. This is a talented side, unfortunately for them they were thrown to the lions.

Next up is Germany. The Germans are my favorites to win it all (more on why my beloved Spain won't later). Like the Dutch, there is no dearth of all-world ability in the front half of the field. The front line will be led by the ageless Miroslav Klose (second all-time World Cup goals scored). But if he fails to impress the Germans have Thomas Muller, who opened the scoring in the Champions League final for Bayern Munich, or his Munich mate Mario Gomez. I expect Lukas Podolski, fresh of his Arsenal deal, to wreak havoc on the flanks. Mesut Ozil and Mario Gotze will look to fire in from the midfield as serious attacking options, while Toni Kroos, Sami Khedira, and the team's lynchpin Bastain Schweinsteiger will do all of the dirty work getting the ball from box to box. As Schweinsteiger goes this German team will go. The German defense is stronger than the Dutch, but not by much. Captain Philip Lahm will bomb forward from his fullback position like a German Dani Alves, which could leave some holes for Jerome Boateng and Per Mertesacker to fill, but that's where Khedira and Schweinsteiger will be invaluable. Manuel Neuer is a very good keeper, but the question is going to be has his head recovered from the devastating loss in the Champions League final. Germany may be in for a slow start with Bayern players coming of a disappointing Champions League final and both the Bayern and Dortmund players battled hard in the German Cup final over Memorial Day weekend. I expect them to make it second but they will paired against the winner of Group A so it is no penalty.

Finally, there is Portugal. Portugal barely qualified for the tournament, needing to beat a very good Bosnian side in the playoffs to get in. That being said they have a lot of dangerous parts, most notably Oscar nominee and world class petulant Cristiano Ronaldo. Despite his pretty boy arrogance, Cristiano Ronaldo is the second best player in the world. He has just never done it on the national stage. Too much has he tried to do it all himself, then switched off when it didn't go his way. But he does have a decent supporting cast this time. Postiga can score, Meireles just played an integral role in Chelsea's Champions League win, and Nani is always dangerous. The back has a strong threesome of Bruno Alves, Pepe, and Fabio Coentrao. The last two run the Real Madrid defense together so there is plenty of familiarity, a huge advantage not only in international ball, but for defenders. But like Denmark, I think there is just too much from Germany and the Netherlands for even Cristiano Ronaldo to pull this bunch over the hump.

MJ:Group B or the Group of Death or the Group Where We Wish Three Teams Could Play In The Knockout Round is fascinating yet unfair.

Ian Darke, or god help us Eric Wynalda, will remind us before kickoff that plenty of German players are battling that Champions League second place medal hangover. Malarkey. There is nothing wrong with Silver and for all hypothetical coefficient points it just shows how strong of a side the German NT is. From top to bottom Germany can beat you with pace, power, and skill. Sounds a bit like the Dutch "total football," and it should. The Germans are ready to cash in on success, their current squad arguably in its prime. Euro '12 and 2014 WC may be the last time all of these fantastic players and household names have to make their mark together. This team will be playing with its heart on its sleeve at the very least but expect much much more even in this difficult group.

The Dutch threw a fantastic party for their second place finish in the most recent World Cup. It was the epitome of, "You may lose the game but you can never lose a party." I would not assign this to complacency either, more a celebration of effort, talent, and pride. So often today it is propagandized that only the winners matter. That making a final and losing is terrible. If you're not on the record books you might as well have never showed up. Again, malarkey. The beautiful game is such because of the heartbreak, because you aim to return stronger and correct your mistakes. The Dutch are not a team of jaded runners up. They are a team led by English Premiere League Player of the Year Robin van Persie. His international tally or highlight reel barely holds a candle to club level with Arsenal but teams will be attempting to mark him out of the game for good reason. Van der Vaart, Robben, Kuyt, Sneijder tucked and spread behind RVP make this top half of a formation simply irresistible.

Portugal has always been a bridesmaid to European football. Their domestic league, although akin to La Liga and electric to watch, is back burner compared to other leagues. Their national team squad exceptional in talent and pace but underachieving in nature. Ronaldo and his fellow Portuguese compatriots from Real Madrid though have finally wrestled the La liga title away from Barcelona. A huge feat, massive. This would be the tournament one would have higher expectations for Portugal but alas they landed in a group with two powerhouses and Denmark.

Poor Denmark? Ol' whipping post Denmark? Any group but this one Denmark. Ironically or foolishly I like the Danes stealing a result or two. At the least they will be influential in who does progress at some capacity. The heavy hitters that make up the rest of the group will be in a knock down drag out slugfest. Even if they play each other conservatively it will be an exhausting 90 minutes of focused containment. So perhaps the Danes really can nick a win and a draw and hang on by the skin of their teeth. Nicklaus Bentdner although extremely pretentious and egotistical is still a threat. He wears hot pink boots and smacks chewing gum all game a la Sir Alex Ferguson, but the tall able bodied Dane although out of favor with Arsenal fans still boasted a 1/3 goal per appearance ratio. Not a bad strike rate for a squad player in a tough league. The Danes crashing out a bit early in South Africa still showed streaks of their worthiness to the big stage. Even at his north of 30 age, Rommedahl still has loads of pace, quite amazing in fact , a truly underrated veteran winger. Lastly a new string puller is on the rise and on the eye of all top club suitors. Christian Eriksen barely 20 is going to have a real opportunity to prove his worth and help Ajax with their transfer kitty when a bigger European club inevitably wins his signature.

Next up we have Group C, which features cup holders Spain, and lastly Group D.

A European Vacation Part 1

It's that wonderful time in the football calendar for what many consider the most exciting international tournament: The UEFA European Championship, or Euro 2012. This tournament is like the World Cup in that it has group stages followed by knock-out stages, but unlike the World Cup, every team is from Europe. Since they are all from the same continent they all play each other, a lot. There will be no lack of intensity and dislike between each side as the face off for the umpteenth time in their history. To help us preview the tournament we've brought back friend of the blog, MJ, who helped us completely nail our World Cup prognostications two years ago. Let's hope we can bottle some more of that magic, but like usual, all predictions wrong or your money back.

First up we've got Group A. That brings us one of the hosts Poland, 2004 surprise winners Greece, 2008 darlings Russia, and the Czech Republic.

Poland is a case of good news bad news. The good news is this is a really easy group; the bad news: they're the lowest ranked team in the tournament. There aren't a lot of household names in this squad outside of goalkeeper Szczesny so it looks like that home cooking will really have to pull them through. I'm not saying that they will crash out, but anything beyond a little feistiness in defeat would be a moral victory.

What is there to say about Greece? The country is falling apart and many of these players have no idea where they will be playing their club ball next year. This could either be a huge distraction or a unifying/ motivating force to propel this team on another Cinderella run like the one from 8 years ago. The have plenty of firepower up front with Gekas and Giorgios Samaras; if those two are firing it could be enough to secure a spot in the knock-out rounds. Other than that they will look to play strong defensive football and absorb their opponent's possession with the likes of the ancient Karagounis in the midfield and the Papadopoulis brothers in defense.

I think that Russia will be one of the favorites to make it out of this relatively easy group, but don't expect a run like the one in 2008. Like the Greeks they have good firepower in the front, at least on paper, with Arshavin, Pavlyuchenko, and Pogrebnyak. Their midfield strength will rest on the shoulders of perpetual next big thing Alan Dzagoev, who is still only 21. Unlike Greece, there is not a lot of defense in this side, with the exception of Yuri Zhirkov and keeper Igor Akinfeev. They definitely got lucky with their draw, the question will be how the Russian season will affect their domestic based players. Will they be rested and ready, or will they be off form?

Lastly there's the Czechs. I think this is the team to beat from the group. From front to back they are the most talented and most experienced. Milan Baros, Tomas Rosicky, are definitely the offensive engine here. And Petr Cech is in the form of his life after many had written him off as finished. If they can keep the team around them focused that should be enough to bring them to their doom in the next round. As you can tell I don't think highly of this group, so I don't think the two teams advancing will be much of a match for any other team in the knock-out round. But this Czech team could take advantage of a weak group, and the fact that in modern international football having a team identity puts you miles ahead of the competition, to make it as group winners.

Who do you like winning this Group of Life (since it's got to be the opposite of a Group of Death)?

MJ: Hosting the party never turns out to be as much fun as it ought to be, the same is true in the world of soccer. UEFA or FIFA, depending on the competition, require rather expensive infrastructure renovations and obligatory accommodations all paid for by said host nation. Sure, Poland will be getting a cut of the gate, and its hoteliers, restauranteurs, pub and nightclub owners are salivating, but the professional guests are coming with intentions of trashing the place. Automatic qualification to the group stage enough to appease the fans? I'd say so, plus the world loves an underdog. Even in this categorically easy group, Poland have their work cut out for them. The man who could help diminish the damage is betweeen the sticks, Wociech Szcezny. He kept 18 clean sheets last season for Arsenal, and given the Gunner's notoriously self-capitulating defense that is quite impressive. A little over a 1/3rd chance to keep a clean sheet at club level means Poland do in fact have a shot of progressing second in the group if they play smartly (10-1 formation) and nick a few on the counter.

A conservative 4-3-3? Never heard of it, until brushing up on Greece's manager, Fernando Santos. When you think 4-3-3, one club comes to mind in this current era; Barcelona. Free flowing 500 pass match stuff, with all the pace and skill to punish a team. That 4-3-3 does not lend itself to Greece's squad. Captained by a thirty-five year old journeyman, Giorgos Karagounis, the greek Xavi, the team is going to have to capitalize on being in the Group of Life and earning a few squeeky results. Sure they were champions in 2004 but England won the World Cup in 1966, how is that for repeat status? You shouldn't wager Greece progress to the knockout round unless you think the payout would make for a fun night out.

It gets slightly better when you look at the Czech Republic camp. A rejuvenated Tomas Rosicky and a seemingly eternal Petr Cech should be enough spark in the front and concrete at the back to at least claim second in the group. If you tip Poland to improbably progress, than you must think the Czech Republic can make a deep run based on goal keeping alone. Petr Cech just won his first UEFA Champion's league. Maybe he needs a vacation after staving off Barcelona and then Bayern Munich? Or maybe his already ever confident keeping will be even more heightened. Back to the front half of the formation is Tomas Rosicky. After a few horrific injuries the little engine that could is back. He was an integral part of Arsenal claiming third place in the Barclay's Premier league; taking on defenders when no one else would, threading a few needles, and sticking it in the onion bag himself a few times. In the twilight of his career, look for another performance circa to the 2006 WC which made the world outside of Dortmund speak his name.

Nostrovia! The Russians are coming. The Group of Life selection could not have been more fortunate to our underachieving Rusky friends (don't spit out your vodka we know they made it to the semi's in Euro 2008). Names like Arshavin, Pavyluchenko, and up and comer Dzaegov should be enough to top the group or at worst for the Russian perception come in second. However, their world class keeper Akinfeev is hardly fit and may not even feature. It is not 2008 or 2010 for that matter. Arshavin and Pavy who tore onto the scene during Euro 2008 are 4 years older. Ask any Arsenal fan if Andrei Arshavin is a hard worker. Ask any Tottenham fan how many times Pavyluchenko has air mailed a strike into row ZZ? These fans might not even be able to comment. Arshavin had limited minutes for Arsenal this year and after being loaned to Zenit St. Petersburg has improved, but does that make the little playmaker a game changer? Pavyluchenko staving off injury and clawing for appearanes also has a few spots of rust on his chassis. Okay, so it is up to some wash ups and a kid, Dzaegov, whose head is probably in the clouds dreaming of playing for a top european club. Alright, this really is the Group of Life.

Stay tuned fans! Next we preview the Group B, which promises to be the most fascinating group of the tournament, followed by Groups C and D.

What A Difference A Week Makes

Last week I was ready to write off the Oklahoma City Thunder's title chances.  Could the team get to the finals? Yes, absolutely.  But in their first game last Saturday against defending champion Dallas Mavericks they looked like a team that was still a little overawed by the big stage that is the playoffs.  Sure they won the game, but it seemed as though the previous two years of playoff experience was out the window and they were already panicking.  It looked like Dallas had set the blueprint for how to beat them: make them fall in love with shooting jump shots.  The NBA playoffs are all about attacking the basket, this is not a new revelation.  When you have players attacking the basket one of two things happen: the player attacking gets a high percentage shot (dunk, lay-up, foul shots), or the defense collapses/rotates and it frees someone else up for an open look.

 Last Saturday OKC's devastating combo of three-time scoring champ Kevin Durant and all-star point guard Russel Westbrook had a lot of trouble with Dallas's zone and fell back into shooting midrange jumpers.  Many were contested and many bricked.  It's why the final score didn't even break 100.  But the Thunder still won.  Thanks to a midrange jumper from Durant.  That play sums up the entire game.  And despite the Thunder win, the performance did not seem like one of a team that was one of the favorites to win the title.

Fast forward one week.  The Thunder are the first team to book their place in the second round with a sweep of the defending champs.  The close out game sent a message.  They were on the road in a game where everything seemed to break for the Mavericks.  Defensive anchor Kendrick Perkins left in the first half with a hip strain, never to return.  No one could top Dirk.  The Mavs were shooting 63% from 3pt range late in the 3rd quarter.  Durant was struggling, Westbrook non-existant, Ibaka (the soul of their defense) was in foul trouble.  Derek Fisher was putting in a lot of minutes.

And yet the Thunder, down 13 with less than 10 minutes left and no momentum at all came back and won thanks to an amazing performance by Sixth-Man of the Year candidate James Harden who scored 7 in a row, and 15 of his team high 29 points in the final frame.  He was attacking the rim and either finishing or passing off to teammates for easy points.  And the defense stepped up.  This play gave the Thunder the lead they would never relinquish and was indicative of the extra intensity the team brought in crunch time.

This win shows that the Thunder can be a champion; as the old saying goes if you want to be the best you have to beat the best.  The somehow created a win in a hostile environment, playing the defending champs who were desperate to avoid an embarrassing first round sweep, with all the breaks going against them, their two best offensive players struggling, and their two best defensive players less than 100%.  They showed they have the talent, the willpower, and the team that cannot be stopped.