European Vacation Part 4

MTA: Time for the fourth and final group of these European Championships, Group D. The players here: Ukraine, Sweden, France, and England.

Ukraine are the other host nation, which is definitely going to help raise their play. There aren't a lot of names in this team only Andriy Shevchenko and Andriy Voronin. Unfortunately for the Ukrainians it's no longer the aughts and these two strikers have seen their better days. Still, there is going to be plenty of feistiness in this side. Every year in the Champions League Dynamo Kiev or Shaktar Donetsk make great showings, often making it to the knock-out rounds. Since this team is loaded with players from both, don't expect them to go quietly into the good night, especially with their mothers, brothers, counsins, aunts, uncles, sisters, fathers, and even gym teachers in the stands cheering them on. I would not be shocked to see a few shockers from this team, but don't count on it.

Sweden is in a similar position as the Ukraine: two big guns up top, with little else to fill in behind. The difference is that Sweden's two forwards are in the prime of their careers. Johan Elmander had a fantastic season for Galatasaray in Turkey, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic has found new life as a false 9 for AC Milan, often driving the action instead of being the big, lolloping target man he was at Barca and stops previous. His ability to let the game come to him and not force it, will be huge since he will be relying on Kim Kallstrom and Sebastian Larsson to provide the service from the midfield. Both are more than capable players when they are in form, but that is a big if. If there was going to be an upset in this group however, I would pick Sweden to nick one of the other two "powerhouses." Their defense will be tough with a good mix of young athletic defenders like Martin Olsson or Andreas Granqvist and experience in Jonas Olsson (no relation).

Next we look at France. France is starting to challenge groupmates England for the spot Spain used to occupy: perennial under achievers. After the embarrassment at the World Cup, where players openly rebelled, the French Football Federation brought in Laurent Blanc to try to right the ship; it hasn't gone as smoothly as they would have liked. They qualified for this tournament as group winners, but there wasn't much talent there to challenge them. That being said there is plenty of talent in the side and only recent history of apathy and cancerous teammates leads me to believe they won't breeze through this group like they should. Karim Benzema put in the goals all year for Real Madrid, and is still only 24. There will be plenty to choose from in the midfield including Samir Nasri, Florent Malouda, and Hatem Ben Arfa, who all saw great success for their EPL clubs this year. There is also Bayern Munich's Franck Ribery, who at one time was one of the most dangerous wingers in the world, but his cancerous antics in South Africa make me question if it is really worth it having him in the dressing room. It is the defense of this team that worries me. Laurent Koscielny really came into his own for Arsenal and should be great for Les Bleus. But the players around him are the shaky ones. Patrice Evra is not only a trouble maker, but has clearly lost three steps. Philippe Mexes was once considered the best up-and-coming defender in the world, yet he never made it; he has been decent for AC Milan these past years, but I would not call him the defensive bedrock he was tipped to be. Hugo Lloris will be fine between the sticks, but he could be called on a little too often. I pick France to make it out, but very cautiously.

Lastly, there is England. Has the English media's downplaying of England chances officially become a reverse jinx attempt? Every English pundit I've heard talk about this team is saying not to expect much, but their tone clearly is one of "I am just saying this because I have to I really expect big things." Well I don't. Roy Hodgson is going to be a very good English manager because he will set a vision for what he wants this team to do, something Capello never did. The problem is, he just started a six weeks ago. England also have a personnel problem. Wayne Rooney's temper cost him the first two games. Frank Lampard is out (but that could be a blessing because now Roy won't have to try to play him and Steven Gerrard at the same time, which never works like it should). And Gary Cahill just broke his jaw in two places to punch a hole in the defense. Like France there is plenty of talent here, but like France there is an attitude concern. Rooney, Gerrard, Ashley Cole, all have a history of acting out when they don't get their way (Gerrard once punched a night club DJ for not playing Phil Collins). But the biggest offender is former captain, John Terry. He regularly orchestrates to get Chelsea managers fired because they don't bow to his every wish, he cheats on his wife with his teammate's girlfriend, and he is under investigation by the government for racially abusing former England mate Rio Ferdinand's brother. Spain learned a long time ago that dressing room harmony was the key to unlocking hoards of talent. England won't reach that upper echelon again as long as they have their bad apples. All that said, there are plenty of workers in the squad. Andy Carroll has recently found some form and his efforts in Rooney's absence may make the difference. Scott Parker is the consumate professional and a beast of a midfielder who can play any role. And the defense will be headed by Man City duo of Joleon Lescott, who was phenomenal in the title run, and keeper Joe Hart. In the end I think England do make it out before the bus crashes.

MJ: The French have a fresh new face. Last World Cup, manager Raymond Domenech and 'surprise surprise' Patrice Evra completely derailed the concept of team unity. Two years later, Domenech is out, Laurent Blanc widely popular player in his day and new manager is in. A proper balance in the squad has been implemented. A very attractive group of youngsters sprinkled in with some of the bigger names of European club football. Kareem Benzema is always a goal threat and should see loads of service from the likes or Ribery, Nasri, and Cabaye. Between the sticks Hugo Loris will make few mistakes of his own and the defensive options are a bit shakey for the French NT. Barca Sagna, one of the best rightbacks in the world will miss out. Koscienly will have loads of responsiblity for a newer NT member but coming off of a great club season at Arsenal he should be ready for the task. France has two of the brightest young stars and hottest transfer targets this summer in striker Oliver Giroud and defensive midfielder Yann M'Vila. If the likes of Ribery and Nasri can keep their head on straight, and remember this is a team effort, Les Blues may very well be Les Vainqueurs du Group D and more.

Oh, how the English media likes to make a soap opera of their national team. The knives are already out questioning the appointment of manager Roy Hodgson, who looks like he'd be more comfortable with his nose in a book rather than leading the Three Lions from the touchline at one of the biggest stages in international football. The player drama plentiful. John Terry facing racism charges, the Rooney clan dodging match fixing and illegal betting charges, and Rooney himself letting his temper ablaze stamping on a Montenegrin player's leg in a qualifier leaving him suspended for the group stage. The player injury worse, Lampard is out with a thigh issue. Cahill out with a broken jaw, ouch. Gareth Barry out. Still the group is a bit soft in England's favor. The current French squad is untested. Ukraine and Sweden are arguably small fish for the tournament. Some newer faces: Andy Carroll, Danny Welbeck, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will have a pretty heavy workload given their experience levels. England could crash out of this group, the English papers already have the headlines written, but most tip them to progress and when Rooney comes back a different team is risen.

The Swede speed are at odds to make it out of the group but, as rightly depicted above, the squad may have enough reslolute defenders and power up front to surprise spectators and pundits alike. Using a 4-4-1-1 giving Zlatan his creative freedom will cause loads of trouble for opponents defences who will in turn have difficulty breaking down the eight men they can quickly push back behind the ball. If Sebastian Larsson is deemed fit, the Swede's will have an incredible delivery man and freekick taker. This may be the perfect group for Sweden to show they should not be taken as lightly as they have been leading up to this tournament.

Concluding with the second host nation Ukraine one cannot stick their head in the sand and ignore the recent reports and even a BBC documentary on the civil state of Ukraine. Some not very pretty pictures have been painted of the Ukrainian soccer culture regarding ethnic tolerance and some rather barbaric supporter behavior. Hooliganism and its unfortunate mix with racism can sadly be seen in many more places than just the Ukraine. Hopefully, the tournament brings out the good in all the fans from different ends of the country, continent, and world and the unspeakable's are not spoken. It is the great Andriy Shevchenko's farewell bash and this group could be loaded with upsets and mixed results, which are the key ingredients to a wonderful tournament and any hope these hosts have for the knockout round.

That wraps up our preview. I want to thank MJ for his excellent work. Stay tuned as the tournament progresses for further analysis. Thanks for tuning in!

European Vacation Part 3

MTA: On to Group C! This group features holders and World Cup Champions Spain, 2006 World Cup champs Italy, Ireland and Croatia.

My beloved Spain is probably the quietest favorite in this tournament. They hold the two major trophies in international soccer, but no one seems to be picking them to win it again. And I am one of those people, as much as I hate to say it. The losses of David Villa up front and Carles Puyol in the back are huge red flags. Villa is Spain's all-time leading scorer and Puyol, like for his club FC Barcelona, adds a stability and fire-putting-out ability to a defense that otherwise likes to push up and leave gaps. That being said the roster is still stacked with some of the finest talent on the planet. A midfield that hinges on the amazing consistency of Xavi will never be out of a match. The man makes hundreds of passes a game and will rarely misplace the ball. He is a rock. Iniesta and Fabregas can provide plenty of creativity and firepower from the center of the park and Sergi Busquets and Xabi Alonso will provide plenty of cover for the back line. Pique has not had his best season at Barcelona, often forgetting he's not a striker while venturing too far up the pitch. Sergio Ramos has a similar problem, but both players have plenty of pace and guile to get themselves out of many situations and Iker Casillas is definitely top three best keepers in the world. Fernando Llorente was on fire for Athletic Bilbao this year, and if it hadn't been for Messi's ridiculous tally of 73 goals this year he would have had more media attention. I think they let him try to replace Villa and work Pedro and or Torres in around him. While Torres did struggle to find goals for Chelsea he did do a ton of the dirty work and provided a lot that didn't show up in the match report so he should be fine, especially since he did see some revival at the end of the campaign. There isn't any reason anyone should doubt Spain, and I'm sure they're using the lack of attention as motivation, it just seems hard to believe they will win three straight tournaments as you can only take everyone's best shot for so long.

Italy would have to be the other favorites to advance from this group. This isn't your granddaddy's Italy; this team will not rely on its defense to get it through with anti-football the country has made its name on. The Antonios (Cassano and Di Natale) up front will lead the way. Wild card Mario Balotelli looks to also make his mark, which I'm sure he will with either a fantastic goal or a fantastically stupid red card. The midfield will be headed by Andrea Pirlo, who will be the only deep lying midfielder of the group. Thiago Motta and Daniele De Rossi will be pushing forward every chance they can. The back will be lead by Gianluigi Buffon in goal, who once was impenetrable, has shown signs of a lost step as he's aged. Chiellini will look to dominate the back line after an impressive year with Juventus. This squad will definitely be more attacking but the problem will be consistency through the backbone of the team. There is also a match fixing scandal going on back home, which has taken some key players out of the squad. But last time there was a match fixing scandal in Italy, the national side lifted the World Cup trophy, so who knows how it will affect the players.

The next team is feel good story of the tournament, Ireland. After heartbreakingly sent home without qualifying for the World Cup due to a Thierry Henry handball that allowed him to score the winning goal in the playoff, it was nice to see the Irish make a tournament for the first time in ten years. They will be bouyed by the support of neutrals who will fall in love with their fans who will be there just to enjoy the party. The Irish will also benefit from manager Trapatoni's years of experience as the national coach of Italy. That being said, the squad Ireland are bringing to Poland and Ukraine, while well known, are not exactly world beaters. Keeper Shay Given was once the best goalie in England, now plies his trade at Aston Villa, who narrowly staved off relegation. Defenders John O'Shea and Richard Dunne (career leader in own goals in the EPL) have seen their better days. Names like Damien Duff and Stephen Hunt will look to control the midfield, which would be great if this were 2006. The strike force will be led by MLS star (never a good thing) Robbie Keane, and career lower EPL/ higher Championship players like Kevin Doyle and Shane Long. A result or two is all that I can expect from this team who will just be glad to be there.

Lastly, there's Croatia. Croatia's biggest name is on the outs coach/rock star Slaven Bilic. It is well believed he will be looking to make the jump to club managing which usually is a huge distraction for players. There is talent in the squad, despite the loss of striker Ivica Olic to a hamstring tear. Former Arsenal man Eduardo will be leaned on heavily to provide the offense. The Croats will need Luka Modric and Niko Kranjcar to play huge roles in midfield if they want any sort of success. And the defense will have to be dominated by out of form Vedran Corluka. There isn't a lot to say about Croatia. They will have high hopes but just not enough firepower to make it out of the group. They will battle Ireland for the honors of not last.

MJ: It is difficult to pick Spain winning a third consecutive major international tournament because it has never been done before. The Spanish National Team has been hit by a few crucial injuries in both attack and defense. Lastly, Jose Mourinho has made it his personal mission to disrupt and divide the Spanish nation, its fans, and players at the cost of club success for Real Madrid. Fatigue from a grueling season is always a speed bump in summer tournaments. Few teams match the output of energy Real Madrid and Barcelona players exert as both teams respectfully depend vastly on their starting eleven plus a few integral squad players. However, manager Vincent Del Bosque will not be able to fall back on any of the above referenced issues as excuses. It is a group Spain should easily get out of, and any momentum at all will help make those leggy feet fleet and rumblings of a history breaking victory will be omnipresent. Cesc Fabregas with another tournament winning assist would make this Gooner proud. The Italian national team is changing its stripes. A blend of spirited attack and solid defensive organization will be on display this tournament. The starting eleven possibilities give Cesare Prandelli a synergistic approach with the option in selecting both exciting young players and veteran stalwarts. Again, in a group where it is extremely easy to pick Spain and Italy as teams to progress, one should look a bit closer at the Italian team. They are currently being raked over the coals for another match fixing scandal and have not scored a goal in 300 minutes. The confidence the Italian players possess or lack there of will be the determing factor for their tournament. Will they coast into the knockout round on a foundation of scandal and offensive lapses or will the Azzurri put everything behind them, a la 2006, and make another defiant run at glory? The Republic of Ireland's WC qualifying pain was vindicated with their bearth into Euro '12. However, now that they have "arrived" where can they go? Their first game against Croatia will be massive and telling if either team has a chance to progress. It funnels down to Robbie Keane v. Luca Modric. They will not match up against each other too often on the pitch but they are the deciding players that need to be at full mast if a tournament opening win and any future upsets could be expected. Modric however, disappseared in the last third of his club season with Tottenham. In turn, Robbie Keane, heavily criticized for going to the LA Galaxy, has not taken his twiglight football all that seriously. Moreover, both players are capable of helping their team top the other. This opening match should be a cracker for both camps, unfortunately their next two games may already be over before the first whistle.

Stay tuned you loyal fan(s?), We have one group left! Look for it later this week.

A European Vacation Part 2

MTA: Now for Group B, or the Group of Death to end all Groups of Death. Three of the teams in this group featured in the knock-out rounds of Euro 2008 and World Cup 2010. The gladiators in this group are The Netherlands, Denmark, Germany and Portugal.

The Netherlands finished as runners up in South Africa and are looking to get the taste of a late Iniesta winner out of their mouth. This team has it all in the attacking half. Robin Van Persie showed that he literally cannot be stopped from scoring. He'll also have Dirk Kuyt and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar looking to remind the world, and suitors, who they are. Barcelona youngling Ibrahim Afellay can also be brought on to spark offense as he showed earlier this season before a knee injury sidelined him. The midfield is also an embarrassment of riches. Arjen Robben will be looking to show the world he is not haunted by his Champions League final performance, and Rafael van der Vaart will be squarely in the shop window as Tottenham didn't make the Champions League again. Wesley Sneijder is the forgotten man of European football, once a must have, now, after an average season at Inter he will be looking to find some form. The one weakness is the defense which will be led by the pedestrian Johnny Heitinga, but the midfielders Mark von Bommel and Nigel de Jong can provide enough cover, provided they refrain from karate practice and stay on the pitch. I pip them to move on if not win the group outright.

Denmark seems to be the also ran of this group, which is saying something since put them in another group and they would probably move on. Rommedahl and Bendter are the two big names up front, but both are streaky at best. Christian Poulsen will be the anchor in midfield, and while he had a decent season with the French club Evian, he's hardly the same man he used to be, but he will have the benefit of pairing up with club mate Thomas Kahlenberg. Never under estimate the power of playing club football together in international tournaments. The Danish D will be organized by Man U's Anders Lindegaard, who many thought should have been the Red Devils' starter over David de Gea, and Liverpool stalwart Daniel Agger. This is a talented side, unfortunately for them they were thrown to the lions.

Next up is Germany. The Germans are my favorites to win it all (more on why my beloved Spain won't later). Like the Dutch, there is no dearth of all-world ability in the front half of the field. The front line will be led by the ageless Miroslav Klose (second all-time World Cup goals scored). But if he fails to impress the Germans have Thomas Muller, who opened the scoring in the Champions League final for Bayern Munich, or his Munich mate Mario Gomez. I expect Lukas Podolski, fresh of his Arsenal deal, to wreak havoc on the flanks. Mesut Ozil and Mario Gotze will look to fire in from the midfield as serious attacking options, while Toni Kroos, Sami Khedira, and the team's lynchpin Bastain Schweinsteiger will do all of the dirty work getting the ball from box to box. As Schweinsteiger goes this German team will go. The German defense is stronger than the Dutch, but not by much. Captain Philip Lahm will bomb forward from his fullback position like a German Dani Alves, which could leave some holes for Jerome Boateng and Per Mertesacker to fill, but that's where Khedira and Schweinsteiger will be invaluable. Manuel Neuer is a very good keeper, but the question is going to be has his head recovered from the devastating loss in the Champions League final. Germany may be in for a slow start with Bayern players coming of a disappointing Champions League final and both the Bayern and Dortmund players battled hard in the German Cup final over Memorial Day weekend. I expect them to make it second but they will paired against the winner of Group A so it is no penalty.

Finally, there is Portugal. Portugal barely qualified for the tournament, needing to beat a very good Bosnian side in the playoffs to get in. That being said they have a lot of dangerous parts, most notably Oscar nominee and world class petulant Cristiano Ronaldo. Despite his pretty boy arrogance, Cristiano Ronaldo is the second best player in the world. He has just never done it on the national stage. Too much has he tried to do it all himself, then switched off when it didn't go his way. But he does have a decent supporting cast this time. Postiga can score, Meireles just played an integral role in Chelsea's Champions League win, and Nani is always dangerous. The back has a strong threesome of Bruno Alves, Pepe, and Fabio Coentrao. The last two run the Real Madrid defense together so there is plenty of familiarity, a huge advantage not only in international ball, but for defenders. But like Denmark, I think there is just too much from Germany and the Netherlands for even Cristiano Ronaldo to pull this bunch over the hump.

MJ:Group B or the Group of Death or the Group Where We Wish Three Teams Could Play In The Knockout Round is fascinating yet unfair.

Ian Darke, or god help us Eric Wynalda, will remind us before kickoff that plenty of German players are battling that Champions League second place medal hangover. Malarkey. There is nothing wrong with Silver and for all hypothetical coefficient points it just shows how strong of a side the German NT is. From top to bottom Germany can beat you with pace, power, and skill. Sounds a bit like the Dutch "total football," and it should. The Germans are ready to cash in on success, their current squad arguably in its prime. Euro '12 and 2014 WC may be the last time all of these fantastic players and household names have to make their mark together. This team will be playing with its heart on its sleeve at the very least but expect much much more even in this difficult group.

The Dutch threw a fantastic party for their second place finish in the most recent World Cup. It was the epitome of, "You may lose the game but you can never lose a party." I would not assign this to complacency either, more a celebration of effort, talent, and pride. So often today it is propagandized that only the winners matter. That making a final and losing is terrible. If you're not on the record books you might as well have never showed up. Again, malarkey. The beautiful game is such because of the heartbreak, because you aim to return stronger and correct your mistakes. The Dutch are not a team of jaded runners up. They are a team led by English Premiere League Player of the Year Robin van Persie. His international tally or highlight reel barely holds a candle to club level with Arsenal but teams will be attempting to mark him out of the game for good reason. Van der Vaart, Robben, Kuyt, Sneijder tucked and spread behind RVP make this top half of a formation simply irresistible.

Portugal has always been a bridesmaid to European football. Their domestic league, although akin to La Liga and electric to watch, is back burner compared to other leagues. Their national team squad exceptional in talent and pace but underachieving in nature. Ronaldo and his fellow Portuguese compatriots from Real Madrid though have finally wrestled the La liga title away from Barcelona. A huge feat, massive. This would be the tournament one would have higher expectations for Portugal but alas they landed in a group with two powerhouses and Denmark.

Poor Denmark? Ol' whipping post Denmark? Any group but this one Denmark. Ironically or foolishly I like the Danes stealing a result or two. At the least they will be influential in who does progress at some capacity. The heavy hitters that make up the rest of the group will be in a knock down drag out slugfest. Even if they play each other conservatively it will be an exhausting 90 minutes of focused containment. So perhaps the Danes really can nick a win and a draw and hang on by the skin of their teeth. Nicklaus Bentdner although extremely pretentious and egotistical is still a threat. He wears hot pink boots and smacks chewing gum all game a la Sir Alex Ferguson, but the tall able bodied Dane although out of favor with Arsenal fans still boasted a 1/3 goal per appearance ratio. Not a bad strike rate for a squad player in a tough league. The Danes crashing out a bit early in South Africa still showed streaks of their worthiness to the big stage. Even at his north of 30 age, Rommedahl still has loads of pace, quite amazing in fact , a truly underrated veteran winger. Lastly a new string puller is on the rise and on the eye of all top club suitors. Christian Eriksen barely 20 is going to have a real opportunity to prove his worth and help Ajax with their transfer kitty when a bigger European club inevitably wins his signature.

Next up we have Group C, which features cup holders Spain, and lastly Group D.

A European Vacation Part 1

It's that wonderful time in the football calendar for what many consider the most exciting international tournament: The UEFA European Championship, or Euro 2012. This tournament is like the World Cup in that it has group stages followed by knock-out stages, but unlike the World Cup, every team is from Europe. Since they are all from the same continent they all play each other, a lot. There will be no lack of intensity and dislike between each side as the face off for the umpteenth time in their history. To help us preview the tournament we've brought back friend of the blog, MJ, who helped us completely nail our World Cup prognostications two years ago. Let's hope we can bottle some more of that magic, but like usual, all predictions wrong or your money back.

First up we've got Group A. That brings us one of the hosts Poland, 2004 surprise winners Greece, 2008 darlings Russia, and the Czech Republic.

Poland is a case of good news bad news. The good news is this is a really easy group; the bad news: they're the lowest ranked team in the tournament. There aren't a lot of household names in this squad outside of goalkeeper Szczesny so it looks like that home cooking will really have to pull them through. I'm not saying that they will crash out, but anything beyond a little feistiness in defeat would be a moral victory.

What is there to say about Greece? The country is falling apart and many of these players have no idea where they will be playing their club ball next year. This could either be a huge distraction or a unifying/ motivating force to propel this team on another Cinderella run like the one from 8 years ago. The have plenty of firepower up front with Gekas and Giorgios Samaras; if those two are firing it could be enough to secure a spot in the knock-out rounds. Other than that they will look to play strong defensive football and absorb their opponent's possession with the likes of the ancient Karagounis in the midfield and the Papadopoulis brothers in defense.

I think that Russia will be one of the favorites to make it out of this relatively easy group, but don't expect a run like the one in 2008. Like the Greeks they have good firepower in the front, at least on paper, with Arshavin, Pavlyuchenko, and Pogrebnyak. Their midfield strength will rest on the shoulders of perpetual next big thing Alan Dzagoev, who is still only 21. Unlike Greece, there is not a lot of defense in this side, with the exception of Yuri Zhirkov and keeper Igor Akinfeev. They definitely got lucky with their draw, the question will be how the Russian season will affect their domestic based players. Will they be rested and ready, or will they be off form?

Lastly there's the Czechs. I think this is the team to beat from the group. From front to back they are the most talented and most experienced. Milan Baros, Tomas Rosicky, are definitely the offensive engine here. And Petr Cech is in the form of his life after many had written him off as finished. If they can keep the team around them focused that should be enough to bring them to their doom in the next round. As you can tell I don't think highly of this group, so I don't think the two teams advancing will be much of a match for any other team in the knock-out round. But this Czech team could take advantage of a weak group, and the fact that in modern international football having a team identity puts you miles ahead of the competition, to make it as group winners.

Who do you like winning this Group of Life (since it's got to be the opposite of a Group of Death)?

MJ: Hosting the party never turns out to be as much fun as it ought to be, the same is true in the world of soccer. UEFA or FIFA, depending on the competition, require rather expensive infrastructure renovations and obligatory accommodations all paid for by said host nation. Sure, Poland will be getting a cut of the gate, and its hoteliers, restauranteurs, pub and nightclub owners are salivating, but the professional guests are coming with intentions of trashing the place. Automatic qualification to the group stage enough to appease the fans? I'd say so, plus the world loves an underdog. Even in this categorically easy group, Poland have their work cut out for them. The man who could help diminish the damage is betweeen the sticks, Wociech Szcezny. He kept 18 clean sheets last season for Arsenal, and given the Gunner's notoriously self-capitulating defense that is quite impressive. A little over a 1/3rd chance to keep a clean sheet at club level means Poland do in fact have a shot of progressing second in the group if they play smartly (10-1 formation) and nick a few on the counter.

A conservative 4-3-3? Never heard of it, until brushing up on Greece's manager, Fernando Santos. When you think 4-3-3, one club comes to mind in this current era; Barcelona. Free flowing 500 pass match stuff, with all the pace and skill to punish a team. That 4-3-3 does not lend itself to Greece's squad. Captained by a thirty-five year old journeyman, Giorgos Karagounis, the greek Xavi, the team is going to have to capitalize on being in the Group of Life and earning a few squeeky results. Sure they were champions in 2004 but England won the World Cup in 1966, how is that for repeat status? You shouldn't wager Greece progress to the knockout round unless you think the payout would make for a fun night out.

It gets slightly better when you look at the Czech Republic camp. A rejuvenated Tomas Rosicky and a seemingly eternal Petr Cech should be enough spark in the front and concrete at the back to at least claim second in the group. If you tip Poland to improbably progress, than you must think the Czech Republic can make a deep run based on goal keeping alone. Petr Cech just won his first UEFA Champion's league. Maybe he needs a vacation after staving off Barcelona and then Bayern Munich? Or maybe his already ever confident keeping will be even more heightened. Back to the front half of the formation is Tomas Rosicky. After a few horrific injuries the little engine that could is back. He was an integral part of Arsenal claiming third place in the Barclay's Premier league; taking on defenders when no one else would, threading a few needles, and sticking it in the onion bag himself a few times. In the twilight of his career, look for another performance circa to the 2006 WC which made the world outside of Dortmund speak his name.

Nostrovia! The Russians are coming. The Group of Life selection could not have been more fortunate to our underachieving Rusky friends (don't spit out your vodka we know they made it to the semi's in Euro 2008). Names like Arshavin, Pavyluchenko, and up and comer Dzaegov should be enough to top the group or at worst for the Russian perception come in second. However, their world class keeper Akinfeev is hardly fit and may not even feature. It is not 2008 or 2010 for that matter. Arshavin and Pavy who tore onto the scene during Euro 2008 are 4 years older. Ask any Arsenal fan if Andrei Arshavin is a hard worker. Ask any Tottenham fan how many times Pavyluchenko has air mailed a strike into row ZZ? These fans might not even be able to comment. Arshavin had limited minutes for Arsenal this year and after being loaned to Zenit St. Petersburg has improved, but does that make the little playmaker a game changer? Pavyluchenko staving off injury and clawing for appearanes also has a few spots of rust on his chassis. Okay, so it is up to some wash ups and a kid, Dzaegov, whose head is probably in the clouds dreaming of playing for a top european club. Alright, this really is the Group of Life.

Stay tuned fans! Next we preview the Group B, which promises to be the most fascinating group of the tournament, followed by Groups C and D.

What A Difference A Week Makes

Last week I was ready to write off the Oklahoma City Thunder's title chances.  Could the team get to the finals? Yes, absolutely.  But in their first game last Saturday against defending champion Dallas Mavericks they looked like a team that was still a little overawed by the big stage that is the playoffs.  Sure they won the game, but it seemed as though the previous two years of playoff experience was out the window and they were already panicking.  It looked like Dallas had set the blueprint for how to beat them: make them fall in love with shooting jump shots.  The NBA playoffs are all about attacking the basket, this is not a new revelation.  When you have players attacking the basket one of two things happen: the player attacking gets a high percentage shot (dunk, lay-up, foul shots), or the defense collapses/rotates and it frees someone else up for an open look.

 Last Saturday OKC's devastating combo of three-time scoring champ Kevin Durant and all-star point guard Russel Westbrook had a lot of trouble with Dallas's zone and fell back into shooting midrange jumpers.  Many were contested and many bricked.  It's why the final score didn't even break 100.  But the Thunder still won.  Thanks to a midrange jumper from Durant.  That play sums up the entire game.  And despite the Thunder win, the performance did not seem like one of a team that was one of the favorites to win the title.

Fast forward one week.  The Thunder are the first team to book their place in the second round with a sweep of the defending champs.  The close out game sent a message.  They were on the road in a game where everything seemed to break for the Mavericks.  Defensive anchor Kendrick Perkins left in the first half with a hip strain, never to return.  No one could top Dirk.  The Mavs were shooting 63% from 3pt range late in the 3rd quarter.  Durant was struggling, Westbrook non-existant, Ibaka (the soul of their defense) was in foul trouble.  Derek Fisher was putting in a lot of minutes.

And yet the Thunder, down 13 with less than 10 minutes left and no momentum at all came back and won thanks to an amazing performance by Sixth-Man of the Year candidate James Harden who scored 7 in a row, and 15 of his team high 29 points in the final frame.  He was attacking the rim and either finishing or passing off to teammates for easy points.  And the defense stepped up.  This play gave the Thunder the lead they would never relinquish and was indicative of the extra intensity the team brought in crunch time.

This win shows that the Thunder can be a champion; as the old saying goes if you want to be the best you have to beat the best.  The somehow created a win in a hostile environment, playing the defending champs who were desperate to avoid an embarrassing first round sweep, with all the breaks going against them, their two best offensive players struggling, and their two best defensive players less than 100%.  They showed they have the talent, the willpower, and the team that cannot be stopped.

Pros vs. Cons

Well the Redskins did it.  They traded three first round picks and a second round pick to move up 4 spots in this year's draft.  Read that sentence again just to let how much they gave up sink in.  The question becomes was this a good idea?

The Pros:  They will almost certainly take Robert Griffin III.  The Redskins need a franchise quarterback. They now have the opportunity to select someone who could be a franchise quarterback.  RG3 had an outstanding year last year.  All reports are the kid has a great head on his shoulders.  But I still have concerns about a few things.  First he played in the Big 12, where even the 3 or 4 winning teams don't play defense.  Second, no one had heard of him until this year because his stats were average.  Third, the one BCS calibre team he played against he put up a stinker in a blowout loss.  Fourth, history shows us that QBs are a strange beast as far as drafting (Chad Pennington went 5 rounds before Tom Brady in 2000).  Fifth: he put up big numbers in a college spread offense which doesn't always translate well (but Cam Newton does give hope).  Sixth, it's the Redskins. So, I am cautiously optimistic.

This is also great because it eliminates the mistake of signing Peyton Manning.  I'll admit I greatly dislike anything with the last name Manning so that has something to do with it.  But it also has something to do with the fact that he is 35 years old coming off of a neck surgery and would be going to a team with a thin offensive line, no receivers, and a secondary that on it's best day is average.  Manning probably has a few more years left in him but probably not enough to give him the huge free agent contract for many years he is going to command on an open market.  Which brings me to my next point.

The Cons:  Was this a good value?  Success in the NFL is all about maximizing production while minimizing cost.  With the new CBA rules on rookie contracts and the general principles of a free market economy drafts are a better, easier way to build and sustain a successful team.  If you cannot bring in cheap talent through drafts you will not be able to win consistently.  Let the Colts be an example.  They were able to cover up four years of bad drafting with Peyton Manning's HOF level play.  As soon as he was gone, the bottom fell out.  I would be surprised if they are back in the playoffs within the next two years (because that would mean Andrew Luck is ridiculous).  The Redskins are now faced with the same problem that kept setting them back when Dan Snyder thought he knew what he was doing: few draft picks (so now the Skins don't even have a chance to whiff on draft picks).  Last year the Redskins used the draft well, trading down to drive down costs and building depth with many picks.  This year, they took the old Snyder route of putting all the eggs in one basket.  Granted, the basket was much needed and fixes the biggest problem, but I wonder if it really was the best solution.  It definitely shows that patience is not in their repertoire.  While they may have gotten the franchise QB, it exacerbates a few other problems.  First: the team completely lacked depth last year.  A few players went down injured (which happens in the NFL) and the wheels came off.  Second: there are huge needs elsewhere on the field (like say receiver, since RG3 can't throw the ball to himself).  The draft is the cost-effective way of fixing these problems.  Now it seems the Redskins will have to go to the free agent market where they will have to overpay for the talent not only this year, but the next two years because a free market with high demand and low supply will always drive the price up.  This has the potential of sabotaging the cap and stunting the development of the team as a model of sustained winning.  Last year, they got it right: draft well, plug gaps with value free agents (it's what teams like the Patriots do and I think it's worked out quite well).  That model will probably have to take a backseat for the next three years (especially since it is highly unlikely the Redskins will get back into the first round.)

So while Griffin may be the franchise quarterback the Redskins so desperately need, it may have been at a cost too much.  I would feel much better if they had only given next year's first round pick away, not the next two years*.  And the Billy Beane in me wishes they had stood pat, and tried to work the system for value (say Kellen Moore in the second or third round where the risk is minimal) and if it meant waiting to get Matt Barkley next year so be it, the team was never one player away from the play-offs this coming season anyway.  But since Shanahan and Bruce Allen did such a good job last year handling the draft and free agency I will give them the benefit of the doubt on this one and hope it's not a flashy move to placate Snyder's ego.

*In 2004 the Giants gave San Diego two first rounds and a third round pick for Eli Manning, who has won two Super Bowls, granted the price arguably was driven down by the fact that baby Manning was pulling a John Elway by throwing a hissy fit and refusing to play for the team that drafted him.


Update:  Just like that, the trade looks incredibly damning.  The big selling point was the amount of money the Redskins had in cap space to sign pieces around RG3.  A league ruling today effectively took that cap space away.  Now the Redskins do not only not have 3 very useful draft picks, but will be seriously limited in their ability to compete in the free agent market.  So no matter how good RG3 is, the team will be hard pressed to surround him with talent to help him succeed.

Review: Awake

Since 2004 network TV has tried to replicate the success of Lost as a sci-fi drama with some mythology with little to no success.*  Where most of those shows failed was where Lost succeeded: developing characters; the temptation was to create this sci-fi wrinkle/ mystery to the show that kept people coming back.  The problem is that if the viewer has no connection or even hates the people wrapped up in the mystery they aren't going to stick around to find out the answer because every week there is no answer people get more and more annoyed.

*NBC has had The Event, ABC threw out V, Flash Forward, and now The River, CBS said why change what's kicking everyone's butt, and Fox canned Firefly and has had moderate success with Fringe.


NBC's new drama Awake seems to have learned the lesson, and it's no surprise that the pilot was very impressive.  The twist of the show is that Jason Isaacs (yes that Jason Isaacs) does not know which reality is reality: the one where his wife survived (played by Laura Allen, who had a stint on last year's Terriers, which if you haven't seen check it out on Netflix, a great character piece set around two not-so-kosher private eyes), or his son (played by Lost alum Dylan Minette, who played Jack's son and is no stranger to parallel universes).  The premise alone lends itself to a need for strong character to super-cede the sci-fi elements.

Writer Kyle Killen demonstrated in the pilot that the idea of grief (and how to cope with it) is just as central to the narrative as the split reality.  The scenes in the competing psychiatrists' offices play an integral role of dealing with Isaacs' Detective Britten as a human being dealing with a very strange and confusing dual realities that bleed into each other, usually for good.*

* Is BD Wong a professional psychiatrist?  He's now played one on 3 shows and nails it every time.


Another nice touch of the show is the contrasting tones in each reality.  We learn early on that red was the wife's favorite color and green the son's.  Consequently the tones in each scene, depending on which reality Britten is in, reflect who survived.  Rex's (the son) reality has a green hue to it while Hannah's (the wife) is more reds.

I think it also helps that the frame of the show is a police procedural.  If Killen really wanted to he could probably run the show for a long time as just a Law & Order: Dual Realities Unit.  It appears that each week there will be two crimes and how Britten pieces together information from both realities will help him solve each.  This leaves the viewer with a sense of satisfaction at the end of an episode instead of only wondering what is the answer to the riddle.  I'm sure (and hoping) that the show develops the cause and effect of the dual realities more, it doesn't seem quite as imperative as finding out just what the V's were on earth for, or why all those people were in that concentration camp in Alaska.

It was definitely a strong start for Awake and it will be interesting to see where the show goes.  If it continues to build on this start it could be around for a while, disproving the myth that all good drama has migrated to cable.