All The Wold's Stage Part 3

And now we reach the knock out stages.  So I'll let MJ kick-off on this one.

MJ Gunner:  Injuries, upsets and one man teams. Where to begin.. When I say one man teams I am referring to Diego Forlan v. Manchester United's Park Ji Sung, I mean Uruguay v. So. Korea. Okay they are not exactly one man teams but those are the headliners and they've had pretty impressive showings thus far. South America and Asia as continents have been quite exceptional thus far and this game should impress viewers and pundits. I say Suarez and Forlan each score to knockout a South Korean side that can only manage one goal.

The injuries.. well most teams are picking up knocks and battling existing injury but England v. Germany is where I see two battled teams showing us a cagey affair by less than full fit squads. Schweinsteigger may sit and Rooney is definitely showing the woes of a long club season. Phil Lahm was quoted and I piggyback him, this one could go to pens. Pens where ze Germans will win.

Argentina v. Mexico is going to be an office-stopper. Especially if Carlos Vela is deemed fit and can participate for Mexico. Mexico has everything and nothing to play for. If Mexico loses, yeah sure they played a powerhouse Argentina but a win would be monumental. Here's to hoping the two quick passing, attack oriented sides put a few into the net on the way to an Argentina victory. The likes of Messi, Higuain and Tevez surely cannot be stopped but in this World Cup I was surely certain Italy and France would still be chilling in Johannesburg preparing for their next big match.

Matt I will let you take the reigns for the rest of the matches. I don't think I could put an objective sentence together for the USA v. Ghana game. I want blood filled revenge and a freaking early brace of goals.. We'll find out soon who plays Brazil and Portugal and I am sure you will have the wraps on those previews because La Roja will hopefully be involved. 

Me:  Well as I write this the bottom half of the bracket is in the process of being completed so we'll talk about that a little later.

We stand a chance against Ghana.  A good chance: we are experienced, mentally tough, and a cohesive unit.  But we also are a little lax in the discipline and finishing department.  Ghana is young, and missing their talisman Michael Essien.  They will be physical and defensive.  It will be a lot like the game against the Algerians, but the Ghanians have a bit more talent.  If we don't concede early and don't have too much of a hangover from the dramatic win, we could do quite well. We are going to be at a serious disadvantage crowd-wise, with Ghana being the last African side.  I will not be surprised if we fall behind and allow Ghana to just sit back and defend in numbers.  Luckily there has to be a winner, so being cagey and trying to simply not lose is no longer in the books.

I really like Uruguay.  As you said, Forlan and Suarez are both on target so far this tournament.  But what amazed me is they didn't concede a single goal in the group stage.  That is impressive I don't care who was in their group.  This side is skilled but also physical and disciplined.  South Korea is just disciplined and very fit.  I see another win for a country from South America.

The big question for the England-Germany game is the heads of the English.  Are they thanking their lucky stars they are just in the knock-out rounds?  Was the 1-0 win a spark?  Will they tighten up against their long-time rivals Germany?  Germany may not be full strength, and Schweinsteiger is a huge loss in the midfield.  I just think the Ozil is in too fine a form to be shackled and no one from England has shown that prowess yet.  Rooney is the difference maker: Man U Rooney shows up and England could shock some people; typical England Rooney shows up and they could be down to 10 men and out of the tournament.

You are absolutely right about Argentina-Mexico.  This should be a cracker.  Messi will have acres of space to work his magic.  I will be interested to see whether Maradona sticks Tevez back in the starting line-up.  Everyone has been praising his performance, but he just doesn't seem to work that well wit Higuain and Messi for me.  Maybe it's his fabled selfishness, or maybe its just that the English game doesn't have swift ground combos with strikers and forwards, but he just can't seem to find his battery mates from the run of play.  I noticed in their game against South Korea that as soon has Tevez came off and Aguero came on, the Argentinians played quicker, more open football.  It could have just been an off day for Tevez, we shall see.

The games this weekend should be excellent because there will be winners and losers, no ties; only big boys play in this sandbox.  Go USA! and see you Monday.

All The Wold's Stage Part 2

And now, my esteemed colleague, Mr. MJ Gunner, and I will finish our pre-tournament talk.  But have no fear.  MJ has agreed to continue our correspondence through the World Cup and even into the transfer season.  Could he become a regular contributor?  Only time will tell...

MJ  Gunner:  Thank you for reminding me my beloved and fellow Russians will not be at the big dance this weekend. Sigh. What will Maradona do next? Well, he may be running through the streets naked as promised if the Argentinians win. Luckily for reporters and photographers this could be a somewhat safer alternative than him driving over reporters' legs.

I think the rest of the field looks great in general. As I cast over the groups I cannot pick one that has a definite two teams that will proceed outside of perhaps Brazil-Portugal in Group G. Personally, the flying Dutchmen are always a secondary team for me and with their ability to score comes their ability to beat teams. Their defense usually and routinely lets them down in the later stages but with a World Cup riddled with injury and uncertainty the Orange must think they can go far. Arjen Robben does not look ready for the first two games but I see Dutch easily proceeding and destined to make an impact in the knockout round.

The big boys always impress during qualifying, the group stage and beyond and per usual one could pick out of the European hat of Italy, Spain, England or Germany and think you have a winner. Notice the exclusion of France. They are a sad bunch squabbling with opponents they should trounce and le coach has shockingly changed the traditional formation to a 4-3-3 two weeks within their opening game. William Gallas a leader? He was snubbed for captaincy and us Arsenal fans know how this could turn for team chemistry. Le Bleus have to face host nation South Africa, a scrappy Mexican side and a Diego Forlan spearheaded attack in Uruguay. Matt, I am on board with the rest of the critics that the French may have their tails between their legs before the group stage is over. 

England is facing a monstrous cup holding drought since 1966; they will get outclassed by a big team in the knockout round and 4 more years of rampant headrolling and press frenzy will continue. I think England secretly likes losing. They get to sell of a heck of a lot more papers writing about, "Is this this year?". Italy will also fizzle out. Yes they scrapped by to actually win the last WC but this year their players are four years older, two years past international retirement and yet they are still in the lineup. The bookies have Spain as the favorite. If you do not know why go watch a Barcelona game; that pretty much is Spain..  Oh and throw in the likes of Fernando Torres, Cesc Fabregas and Barca recent addition David Villa. The only team who can stack up to them is Brazil. They are faster and stronger then ever and still have the skill up and down the roster to make your jaw drop. Kaka came off what was a seemingly disapointing year and as a true competitor will see the WC as another proving ground why he was called one of the best in the world just 2-3 years ago. 

Matt I know you are a Messi Fanatic so I will let you discuss Argentina's chances with volatile Maradona at the helm and please shed some light on your favorites to go through and far. As for the medium size fish that have been overlooked here. Watch for Nigeria, Cameroon, Ghana, Switzerland, Serbia and of course the good ol' US of A to make an impact in the group stage and hopefully for the latter in the knockout stage as well!

Me:  Well first let me preach on Maradona.  I love Maradona like people love Ron Artest.  In fact, if you take Michael Jordan's ability, Artest's personality, throw in some drugs, and a dash of religious zealotry, then put that in charge of the most important sports team to a country...that is Maradona.  I love his crazy man beard right now.  I hope he goes all Artest and has a barber shave some ridiculous designs into it.  This could happen.

OK, enough of that.  Messi.  I love Messi: his flair, his control, his ability to change a game, the fact that he pretty much put my beloved Barca on his back on more than one occasion this year.  If there were one player who could single-handedly win this tourney, it is Leo.  I think he's one World Cup away from this though; he turns 23 during the tournament.  I won't be surprised if he did it.  I won't be surprised if he doesn't do it.  If I had to bet on him having a tournament like his coach had in '86 I would wait for 2014, when he will probably have a better coach who will have a more favorable system around him.  Although rumor has it that Maradona has been in contact with Pep Guardiola for tactical advice.

I agree with you on Les Bleus.  They are talented as hell, but it seems that karma for the Hand of Gaul is already coming back to bite them.  Teams historically don't play well for coaches on the outs.  Which is why it was such a curious decision to announce that Domenech was out after the Cup.  Why didn't they do this after Euro '08 and give a new coach 2 years to reform the team.  And yeah Gallas is going to tear the locker room apart, as he did to your club.

I will have to go back on what I said to you yesterday about South Africa.  I think that France will slip up, Mexico will be the class of the group, and it will be between Bafana Bafana and Uruguay for that second spot.  That home crowd could really swing this.  As long as the home team doesn't crap the bed in that first game and rain on the parade, that crowd, those damned vuvuzelas, will be devastating to opponents.  Also, the home team has never been knocked out in the group stages; I won't go against history.

I also agree about Italy.  They are not a year, not two, but four years older.  The team wasn't exactly speed merchants in '06, and speed doesn't age like wine.  The Netherlands are always a threat, but like you said that defense is suspect, so a deep run is possible, but hoisting that trophy would be a little surprising to me, not a shock, but I wouldn't put them in the first group of favorites.  Also, I don't see Portugal playing a prominent role in this tourney.  Cristiano Ronaldo is going to be on an island, and he really doesn't seem to care about playing for his country.  They struggled qualifying, they have a horrible coach, Nani is out, and if they hit a bump look for CR9 to check out, or lash out and see the proverbial red mist (which Wayne Rooney is also a victim of from time to time.)  So, don't pencil them in out of that group, because despite Drogba playing with a broken arm, that Ivory Coast team has Sven Goran Eriksson at the helm, who has been there under a lot more pressure with England, and plenty of talent.  And don't underestimate North Korea.  Those communist countries are crazy with their athletes; they are practically a military unit that sleeps, eats, trains, and craps as one.  There isn't much to say about Germany, they will miss Ballack, but have talent, a good coach, and a workman approach.  They should do well; I'm actually surprised more haven't tipped them as a dark horse.

I can only really agree with you about Nigeria, Cameroon and Serbia.  The two African teams will most likely have more supporters there than most, and those sides are well coached with great players in them:  Yobo, Uche, Martins, Yakubu, Webo, Eto'o, Song.  Serbia is surprisingly loaded with talent from top European leagues: Vidic, Stankovic, Zigic, and Ivanovic to name just a few.  This team will play a tactically sound game with very, very capable players in the wide positions.  This is the kind of team that could devastate a squad like the Netherlands, and many other unsuspecting opponents.
  

It appears all that's left is Brazil and Spain.  Spain is pretty much my second team, because as you said it practically is the Barcelona first choice squad with a more than capable players subbed in (although I think Victor Valdes is better than Iker Casillas, especially recently, but I'm biased).  They are strong right through the middle, and all very, very familiar with each other.  I mean how many teams in this competition can play 2 centerbacks behind 2 midfielders who all play club ball together?  None.  Throw in David Villa's recent welcoming into the Barca fold, and Pedro's explosion onto the scene this year for FCB, and Spain have chemistry out the ying-yang.  But I can't tip them as winners.  Why?  Because everyone says they will.  Favorites just don't tend to win this thing.  Del Bosque is a great coach (for a Madridista), the squad is packed to the gills with talent, but one yellow card, one muscle tweak, one swerve of the frisbee that is the ball (and Casillas has had trouble catching this year for Real Madrid) and it can go horribly wrong. 

That's why Brazil seems poised to do what everyone tipped them to do last time around the track.  This year's squad doesn't have the prima donnas like Ronaldinho, Rivaldo, or Ronaldo (the fat one).  They have just as much skill on the ball as any.  But unlike Brazil sides of the past, these guys will knock you around.  Kaka will pull the strings in the midfield, Fabiano will pour in goals up front, Maicon will dominate from the back to the front out wide, and Lucio is a rock.  Brazilians criticized Dunga a lot, crucified him even, while the team was transitioning to being fully his team, but he has really put together a very, very dangerous team.

But like I said, one bad break, and its curtains.  The reason we love this tournament is the unpredictability of a single leg elimination format, with players who generally don't have a lot of time playing together in the coach's system.  It is predictably unpredictable. 

All The Wold's Stage Part 1

As promised, I would be unveiling a new blog post concept this week.  Without further ado, I would like to welcome my good friend MJ Gunner to First and Den.  I regularly get texts, emails, Facebook messages, smoke signals, telegrams, telegraphs, etc. from MJ praising and bemoaning the performance of his beloved Arsenal.  So I figured who better to talk World Cup with?  MJ and I have been exchanging emails for about a week now, a la Bill Simmons and Malcolm Gladwell.  Here are a few of them, with more to come.  Pay attention ESPN, this could be your midnight to 3am team on ESPN Radio, you can have us for really cheap.

Me: So I would think we would start with the US Squad then move to the big picture.

Right now I think Uncle Sam's Army is in a very precarious place.  Injuries have wreaked havoc, especially on the back line, which is usually our strength. Oguchi Onweyu is coming back from a big knee injury and looked slow and as earth-bound as a fat man in a rascal scooter in the two friendlies here in the US.  Carlos Bocanegra just had hernia surgery.  Jay Demerit is recovering from a nearly career ending eye infection and is having depth perception problems, kind of an important thing in sports.  This can't be good because these guys haven't been playing a lot lately.  That being said, with Tim Howard back there organizing, and they have played a lot of minutes together in the past gives me hope.

Without Charlie Davies, and now that Jozy Altidore sprained his ankle, I worry a little about the front line.  Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey are our two best offensive players, but they come from the midfield, and if no one up front can occupy the opponent's defenders it could be hard for those two to find space.  I am very interested to see how Herculez Gomez plays.  He not only led the Mexican league in scoring, but he has two Zs in his name!

How do you think these injuries will play out?  Have any other concerns?

MJ Gunner:  First I just want to say I am a full service member of Sam's Army and rightfully so am drinking 2-3 glasses of the team Kool-Aid daily. Ever since the Confederation's Cup when we beat Spain and went up on Brazil in the final I realized we have finally made it on the international scene. In 2006 there were high expectations (and a generous power ranking from ESPN, thanks for the jinx) and Bruce Arena and the boys came up short but I believe what Bruce started has been aptly transitioned and progressed with Bob Bradley. No, we are not a top 6 or 7 team internationally. But we have proved that we can beat top teams, any given Sunday (Saturday) right?  No, our team's starting 11 club payroll is not $1 Million a week like Spain, Brazil, Italy, England, but we have the international experience up and down enough of our roster which is a large factor in player growth at the international level.

That puffy intro aside, as a full service member of the Army I also am a full serviced pessimist and fear the worst for our boys. Of course, the worst is failure to progress through the group stage. This starts with injuries you noted. Altidore is practicing again and his participation in our opener against those limey Brits is all but guaranteed. This is crucial to fielding our strongest team against our hardest group opponent. That said, England, our hardest group opponent, will also be the team that hammers our backline the most. Bocanegra and Onweyu recovering and not in top form could bury us. Names like Cherundolo and Jonathan Spector come to mind of people that have the club or international experience and can step up to help cover England's inevitable onslaught of offense. We will miss Davies, and our thoughts have been with him, but our attack minded midfielders and forwards is where I have the most confidence (outside of Timmy in goal of course) in our squad, especially for taking care of Algeria and Slovenia. Altidore is all but guaranteed to be involved for the opener against England. Herc Gomez has a little [Carlos] Tevez in him and now Edson Buddle is our super sub and after Saturday could get the nod for a start. Midfield, with Dempsey pushing forward, and Bradley and Donovan playing more traditional roles, is going to be our nucleus of the team. We will not beat England and maybe the other teams if this nucleus is not on script. When you think great teams yes they have the playboy strikers but their midfield and wingers are just as impressive and arguably more important from a team's perspective. So yeah, we have a world class keeper, fingers crossed for a healthy enough backline, and 5-6 attacking midfield and striking options that have proven they can beat and hang with the best.

Yes, I just finished another glass of the Kool-Aid there. I really do love our team, but what of our group opponents?  We've caught three breaks with England, albeit little breaks we still need to draw positives from their negatives. (1) Everyone hates John Terry, (2) Rio Ferdinand their captain and best defender suffered a WC ending injury, and (3), their GK David James, relegated Portsmouth…? Well sure he is dubbed great and a team's atrocity can't be blamed on one player but I wonder how many Brits share confidence for their man in glove. With these breaks there is one name that keeps me up at night, Rooney. He is an amazing player with foot and head and can single handedly put us to the sword. England comfortably won their last three friendlies scoring 8 goals with a +5 Goal differential; they are ready, hungry and want this for their country not just themselves. Their last win in 1966 might as well be 1866. Algeria qualified in last ditch fashion and have proven their hunger but a little run in with Ireland and losing 3-0 in that friendly has exposed their frailty at the back and inability to produce. Slovenia, hmm what do we know about them? I know little. What have we learned from their friendlies recently? Nothing, they played Qatar and New Zealand a pair of pushovers if you ask me. So Matt I turn it to you, what do you see happening in these group stages? How do we matchup? Are you praying for a tie against England like I am or have you put a little extra coin on the offering plate in hopes for an epic upset and victory a la Spain in the Confed Cup? Dare we lose to England can we overcome and still progress?

Me: I'm not quite sure what to make of our group.  I feel a lot better about facing England than I did when the groups were first announced.  Losing Rio Ferdinand is a big, big hole for them.  I'm not sure the John Terry debacle hurts as far as his performance.  I think that story has lost its legs a little bit.  Where it does hurt them is not having Wayne Bridge, who wouldn't have started but would have been a great man to have coming off the bench.  I also love the fact they are now relying on Ledley King, who can't practice because chronic knee problems.  They will have their keeper problem sorted out.  James, Joe Hart and Robert Green are all three Premiere League quality starters (even the best keeper in the world wouldn't have kept Pompey up this year).  Luckily for us they probably won't have it figured out by the first game.

All that being said, they have too much talent and pace in the midfield and too much Rooney for us to pull the complete upset.  I think it would take our best game and their worst to get a draw.  Look I know we're the only team to beat Spain in the last 45 games, but that was in the Confed Cup, this is the World Cup.  It's like comparing the NIT to the Big Dance.

As for the rest of our group, I really don't know.  You can't take Slovenia's thrashing of New Zealand lightly.  The All-Whites are a WC side (even if they qualified from the equivalent of the Big Sky Conference), and they put in 4 against Qatar, that's got to give them some confidence, and in this tournament that matters.  They will play a very rough game with a strong defense.  As we saw last time around that can take you places, it got them through European qualifying, which is not a cake walk by any means, just ask Euro 2008 darlings Russia (who the Slovenes beat in a play-off) and Turkey, who won’t be joining us in South Africa.  Those are really the only things they have going for them.  There isn't a star we know of yet, and not many players play in any of the major European leagues; this team might suffer from a little stage fright and a little bit of a just-glad-to-be-here syndrome.

What to say about Algeria?  Well they beat the most consistent African side, and hated rivals Egypt in a one game play-off.  It was ugly.  Check it out on YouTube sometime.  Algeria should have been down to 6 men by half-time (same with their final in the African Cup of Nations.)  They are going to foul to try to slow the game down.  I'm pretty sure their coach Rabah Saadane studied under Jose Mourinho at some point.  They like to flood the midfield and have defenders who can get forward.  Overall though, it's a young team that just had a very disappointing loss in the African Cup of Nations that shook things up a bit.  I don't know if they can get organized enough and play with the chemistry needed to do some damage.

Getting out of the group is certainly doable, even if we lose to England.  It would be best not to lose to the Three Lions by more than 2 because it may come down to goal difference.  We looked really good on Saturday against an Australian side that isn't as strong as it has been in the past, but certainly has a history of frustrating us.  We looked well organized at the back, and our counter attack looked ready to score every time we go the ball; we played much of the last 30 minutes on the back foot and still managed a goal in that time.  We will need to play 3 great games in a row if we want a chance, because no one in our group is soft.  I think we will progress, but not as easily as some think.  If we don't, that might be the end of soccer in America.

MJ, what are your thoughts on the rest of the field?  Who do you like?  Who do you think is destined for an embarrassing early exit?  Who could surprise us?  What will Maradona do next?

Sorry

No post this week.  I will have a special post next week for the World Cup.  It will be something never before seen on this blog.