It's that wonderful time in the football calendar for what many consider the most exciting international tournament: The UEFA European Championship, or Euro 2012. This tournament is like the World Cup in that it has group stages followed by knock-out stages, but unlike the World Cup, every team is from Europe. Since they are all from the same continent they all play each other, a lot. There will be no lack of intensity and dislike between each side as the face off for the umpteenth time in their history. To help us preview the tournament we've brought back friend of the blog, MJ, who helped us completely nail our World Cup prognostications two years ago. Let's hope we can bottle some more of that magic, but like usual, all predictions wrong or your money back.
First up we've got Group A. That brings us one of the hosts Poland, 2004 surprise winners Greece, 2008 darlings Russia, and the Czech Republic.
Poland is a case of good news bad news. The good news is this is a really easy group; the bad news: they're the lowest ranked team in the tournament. There aren't a lot of household names in this squad outside of goalkeeper Szczesny so it looks like that home cooking will really have to pull them through. I'm not saying that they will crash out, but anything beyond a little feistiness in defeat would be a moral victory.
What is there to say about Greece? The country is falling apart and many of these players have no idea where they will be playing their club ball next year. This could either be a huge distraction or a unifying/ motivating force to propel this team on another Cinderella run like the one from 8 years ago. The have plenty of firepower up front with Gekas and Giorgios Samaras; if those two are firing it could be enough to secure a spot in the knock-out rounds. Other than that they will look to play strong defensive football and absorb their opponent's possession with the likes of the ancient Karagounis in the midfield and the Papadopoulis brothers in defense.
I think that Russia will be one of the favorites to make it out of this relatively easy group, but don't expect a run like the one in 2008. Like the Greeks they have good firepower in the front, at least on paper, with Arshavin, Pavlyuchenko, and Pogrebnyak. Their midfield strength will rest on the shoulders of perpetual next big thing Alan Dzagoev, who is still only 21. Unlike Greece, there is not a lot of defense in this side, with the exception of Yuri Zhirkov and keeper Igor Akinfeev. They definitely got lucky with their draw, the question will be how the Russian season will affect their domestic based players. Will they be rested and ready, or will they be off form?
Lastly there's the Czechs. I think this is the team to beat from the group. From front to back they are the most talented and most experienced. Milan Baros, Tomas Rosicky, are definitely the offensive engine here. And Petr Cech is in the form of his life after many had written him off as finished. If they can keep the team around them focused that should be enough to bring them to their doom in the next round. As you can tell I don't think highly of this group, so I don't think the two teams advancing will be much of a match for any other team in the knock-out round. But this Czech team could take advantage of a weak group, and the fact that in modern international football having a team identity puts you miles ahead of the competition, to make it as group winners.
Who do you like winning this Group of Life (since it's got to be the opposite of a Group of Death)?
MJ: Hosting the party never turns out to be as much fun as it ought to be, the same is true in the world of soccer. UEFA or FIFA, depending on the competition, require rather expensive infrastructure renovations and obligatory accommodations all paid for by said host nation. Sure, Poland will be getting a cut of the gate, and its hoteliers, restauranteurs, pub and nightclub owners are salivating, but the professional guests are coming with intentions of trashing the place. Automatic qualification to the group stage enough to appease the fans? I'd say so, plus the world loves an underdog. Even in this categorically easy group, Poland have their work cut out for them. The man who could help diminish the damage is betweeen the sticks, Wociech Szcezny. He kept 18 clean sheets last season for Arsenal, and given the Gunner's notoriously self-capitulating defense that is quite impressive. A little over a 1/3rd chance to keep a clean sheet at club level means Poland do in fact have a shot of progressing second in the group if they play smartly (10-1 formation) and nick a few on the counter.
A conservative 4-3-3? Never heard of it, until brushing up on Greece's manager, Fernando Santos. When you think 4-3-3, one club comes to mind in this current era; Barcelona. Free flowing 500 pass match stuff, with all the pace and skill to punish a team. That 4-3-3 does not lend itself to Greece's squad. Captained by a thirty-five year old journeyman, Giorgos Karagounis, the greek Xavi, the team is going to have to capitalize on being in the Group of Life and earning a few squeeky results. Sure they were champions in 2004 but England won the World Cup in 1966, how is that for repeat status? You shouldn't wager Greece progress to the knockout round unless you think the payout would make for a fun night out.
It gets slightly better when you look at the Czech Republic camp. A rejuvenated Tomas Rosicky and a seemingly eternal Petr Cech should be enough spark in the front and concrete at the back to at least claim second in the group. If you tip Poland to improbably progress, than you must think the Czech Republic can make a deep run based on goal keeping alone. Petr Cech just won his first UEFA Champion's league. Maybe he needs a vacation after staving off Barcelona and then Bayern Munich? Or maybe his already ever confident keeping will be even more heightened. Back to the front half of the formation is Tomas Rosicky. After a few horrific injuries the little engine that could is back. He was an integral part of Arsenal claiming third place in the Barclay's Premier league; taking on defenders when no one else would, threading a few needles, and sticking it in the onion bag himself a few times. In the twilight of his career, look for another performance circa to the 2006 WC which made the world outside of Dortmund speak his name.
Nostrovia! The Russians are coming. The Group of Life selection could not have been more fortunate to our underachieving Rusky friends (don't spit out your vodka we know they made it to the semi's in Euro 2008). Names like Arshavin, Pavyluchenko, and up and comer Dzaegov should be enough to top the group or at worst for the Russian perception come in second. However, their world class keeper Akinfeev is hardly fit and may not even feature. It is not 2008 or 2010 for that matter. Arshavin and Pavy who tore onto the scene during Euro 2008 are 4 years older. Ask any Arsenal fan if Andrei Arshavin is a hard worker. Ask any Tottenham fan how many times Pavyluchenko has air mailed a strike into row ZZ? These fans might not even be able to comment. Arshavin had limited minutes for Arsenal this year and after being loaned to Zenit St. Petersburg has improved, but does that make the little playmaker a game changer? Pavyluchenko staving off injury and clawing for appearanes also has a few spots of rust on his chassis. Okay, so it is up to some wash ups and a kid, Dzaegov, whose head is probably in the clouds dreaming of playing for a top european club. Alright, this really is the Group of Life.
Stay tuned fans! Next we preview the Group B, which promises to be the most fascinating group of the tournament, followed by Groups C and D.
