Fool's Gold

I've already dedicated one entry about the Redskins' draft choices but yesterday's breaking news that the Rams are determined to trade their number 2 pick begs me to put my thoughts on what my favorite team should do in the draft out there yet again.

The Redskins are certainly in the running for this pick because Shanahan and new Rams coach Jeff Fisher are long time friends.  And the Skins definitely need a quarterback.  And it appears that the Browns are in the market as well.  So those are the reasons to trade.  Now here are the much more compelling reasons to not.

First, don't let the hype fool you, all that glitters is not gold.  RGIII is not a sure thing.  For starters, his stats didn't become elite until this year.  He NEVER played against elite competition.  I'm sorry but the Big 12 has been an after thought these past few seasons.  Yes, they have had BCS participants, but not a single legitimate title contender until this year (when Nick Saban's self-dealing kept OSU out of the title game).  And in his one game against that elite team Griffin was less than impressive throwing more picks than TDs in a blowout loss (and OSU did not have an elite defense by any stretch of the imagination).  So while this past season was incredible, and he deservingly won the Heisman, his body of work does not speak to automatic success in the NFL (the list of flash in the pan, one good season for a Heisman NFL flameouts is long and storied: Eric Crouch, Tim Couch, Ron Dayne, Jason White).

I also look at history of drafts with two QBs that out pace the class.  Most notably, the 1998 draft where we had Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.  Manning, clearly was a success.  Leaf was a success, at picking up a pill problem.  The only comparison I am drawing between Leaf and Griffin is that hype, desperation, competition pulled a QB with obvious flaws higher than he should have gone.  1998, like 2012 had what appeared to be a 1 and a 1A QB not necessarily because the talents were equatable, but because teams were drawn to the flash on the surface and the sense of those two then a serious drop off and talent.  It lead to inflated evaluations.  And the media helped because it became a good story: who will the Colts take Manning or Leaf.  They have the same story today: Luck or Griffin.

Would I be mad if the Redskins drafted Griffin?  Absolutely not, he has loads of talent.  What will be infuriating, given the huge holes at other positions (like receiver which is not a quick fix, especially not in free agency), and the new CBA's cap on rookie salaries, would be if the Redskins revert back to their old habits of shipping draft picks out and mortgaging the future for a flashy splash that fills one hole by making two more.  So, if the price is right, trade up, but a huge compensation is not worth it given the needs elsewhere, the cheap free agent market, and the ease at which an elite QB can be formed from a later round draft pick (see. Drew Brees, Tom Brady).