Pros vs. Cons

Well the Redskins did it.  They traded three first round picks and a second round pick to move up 4 spots in this year's draft.  Read that sentence again just to let how much they gave up sink in.  The question becomes was this a good idea?

The Pros:  They will almost certainly take Robert Griffin III.  The Redskins need a franchise quarterback. They now have the opportunity to select someone who could be a franchise quarterback.  RG3 had an outstanding year last year.  All reports are the kid has a great head on his shoulders.  But I still have concerns about a few things.  First he played in the Big 12, where even the 3 or 4 winning teams don't play defense.  Second, no one had heard of him until this year because his stats were average.  Third, the one BCS calibre team he played against he put up a stinker in a blowout loss.  Fourth, history shows us that QBs are a strange beast as far as drafting (Chad Pennington went 5 rounds before Tom Brady in 2000).  Fifth: he put up big numbers in a college spread offense which doesn't always translate well (but Cam Newton does give hope).  Sixth, it's the Redskins. So, I am cautiously optimistic.

This is also great because it eliminates the mistake of signing Peyton Manning.  I'll admit I greatly dislike anything with the last name Manning so that has something to do with it.  But it also has something to do with the fact that he is 35 years old coming off of a neck surgery and would be going to a team with a thin offensive line, no receivers, and a secondary that on it's best day is average.  Manning probably has a few more years left in him but probably not enough to give him the huge free agent contract for many years he is going to command on an open market.  Which brings me to my next point.

The Cons:  Was this a good value?  Success in the NFL is all about maximizing production while minimizing cost.  With the new CBA rules on rookie contracts and the general principles of a free market economy drafts are a better, easier way to build and sustain a successful team.  If you cannot bring in cheap talent through drafts you will not be able to win consistently.  Let the Colts be an example.  They were able to cover up four years of bad drafting with Peyton Manning's HOF level play.  As soon as he was gone, the bottom fell out.  I would be surprised if they are back in the playoffs within the next two years (because that would mean Andrew Luck is ridiculous).  The Redskins are now faced with the same problem that kept setting them back when Dan Snyder thought he knew what he was doing: few draft picks (so now the Skins don't even have a chance to whiff on draft picks).  Last year the Redskins used the draft well, trading down to drive down costs and building depth with many picks.  This year, they took the old Snyder route of putting all the eggs in one basket.  Granted, the basket was much needed and fixes the biggest problem, but I wonder if it really was the best solution.  It definitely shows that patience is not in their repertoire.  While they may have gotten the franchise QB, it exacerbates a few other problems.  First: the team completely lacked depth last year.  A few players went down injured (which happens in the NFL) and the wheels came off.  Second: there are huge needs elsewhere on the field (like say receiver, since RG3 can't throw the ball to himself).  The draft is the cost-effective way of fixing these problems.  Now it seems the Redskins will have to go to the free agent market where they will have to overpay for the talent not only this year, but the next two years because a free market with high demand and low supply will always drive the price up.  This has the potential of sabotaging the cap and stunting the development of the team as a model of sustained winning.  Last year, they got it right: draft well, plug gaps with value free agents (it's what teams like the Patriots do and I think it's worked out quite well).  That model will probably have to take a backseat for the next three years (especially since it is highly unlikely the Redskins will get back into the first round.)

So while Griffin may be the franchise quarterback the Redskins so desperately need, it may have been at a cost too much.  I would feel much better if they had only given next year's first round pick away, not the next two years*.  And the Billy Beane in me wishes they had stood pat, and tried to work the system for value (say Kellen Moore in the second or third round where the risk is minimal) and if it meant waiting to get Matt Barkley next year so be it, the team was never one player away from the play-offs this coming season anyway.  But since Shanahan and Bruce Allen did such a good job last year handling the draft and free agency I will give them the benefit of the doubt on this one and hope it's not a flashy move to placate Snyder's ego.

*In 2004 the Giants gave San Diego two first rounds and a third round pick for Eli Manning, who has won two Super Bowls, granted the price arguably was driven down by the fact that baby Manning was pulling a John Elway by throwing a hissy fit and refusing to play for the team that drafted him.


Update:  Just like that, the trade looks incredibly damning.  The big selling point was the amount of money the Redskins had in cap space to sign pieces around RG3.  A league ruling today effectively took that cap space away.  Now the Redskins do not only not have 3 very useful draft picks, but will be seriously limited in their ability to compete in the free agent market.  So no matter how good RG3 is, the team will be hard pressed to surround him with talent to help him succeed.