Due to our hectic travel schedules for this upcoming weekend I am going to be doing this post without my learned colleague MJ. The Second half of the bracket we have two mega clashes of nations rich in footballing tradition: Spain vs. France and Italy vs. England.
SPAIN VS. FRANCE
This is the most mouth-watering match-up of the round, and could be the best game of the tournament. Spain showed a glimpse of what it could do against Ireland completing upwards of 750 passes, a new tournament record. But against Italy and Croatia the Spanish looked stuck in training mode. They seemed content to do just enough, which obviously is all you need to do to advance, but the complacency could come back to bite them. They have really missed David Villa up front. Silva is just not a consistent enough goal threat and seems afraid to shoot most of the time. Torres showed what he can do, but the major difference between him and Villa is that Villa will make a chance out of anything, whereas Torres clearly has a few particular methods of getting the shot he wants and if he can't quite get the service he wants he gets frustrated. I think Fernando LLorente would do well to get a chance against France at some point.
The French were going to be my dark horse candidate after the first two games in the group stage. Then they came out against Sweden and let played a stinker, throwing away a 23 match unbeaten streak. France's problem is in the midfield: they have a great holding combo in Diarra or M'Vila, and they have great wingers in Menez and Ribery. There is no one in the middle to connect the dots. Nasri has been totally anonymous except for his brief brilliance against England. Cabaye has really been the workhorse, yet he didn't play against Sweden, so there are some question marks. Without the middle man it make Karim Benzema drop too deep to get the ball, taking away his cutting edge. Also, I think we can say the French defense is shaky at best.
What does this mean for the game? If Spain can approach the form that they are capable of, they could boss the midfield and make France play on the counter attack. This is not a problem for the French because it will let Ribery and Menez latch on to longer balls and hit the Spanish where they are weakest: transition defense. Pique has a bad habit of pushing up to the 18 yard box during long spells of possession. That being said, if Spain are pinging their passes around and moving like they did against Ireland it could be 2-0 before France even gets a shot. I predict that Spain will win in a nervy affair.
ITALY VS. ENGLAND
I have a lot less to say about these two teams, as I don't have a love affair with them like I do with the Spanish. The biggest thing that stuck out to me with both of these teams in the group stages is that England cannot hold the ball. They are still living in a world of smash and grab. Generally, this does not win tournaments (with notable exceptions: Greece in Euro 2004, Italy in World Cup 2006, Chelsea in the 2012 Champions League). The English will be content to sit back and play their energetic defense then get their chances when they can. But they rely a lot on Steven Gerrard playing the perfect pass for them to score. And while Italian teams generally have trouble with the pace the English play at, this Italian team is excellent in possession, working around the ageless Pirlo. Balotelli and Cassano could be a handful for Lescott and Terry, who is easily beaten by speed. In the end I think the Italians learn from their mistake against Croatia in trying to play for 1-0, and use constant pressure to wear out the England defense. It will break the English hearts, which seem to think this team will win it all all of the sudden, but Italy are the more technically gifted and better attacking side (who would have every thought those words would make it to print?). Italy win 2-0.
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