A European Vacation Part 1

It's that wonderful time in the football calendar for what many consider the most exciting international tournament: The UEFA European Championship, or Euro 2012. This tournament is like the World Cup in that it has group stages followed by knock-out stages, but unlike the World Cup, every team is from Europe. Since they are all from the same continent they all play each other, a lot. There will be no lack of intensity and dislike between each side as the face off for the umpteenth time in their history. To help us preview the tournament we've brought back friend of the blog, MJ, who helped us completely nail our World Cup prognostications two years ago. Let's hope we can bottle some more of that magic, but like usual, all predictions wrong or your money back.

First up we've got Group A. That brings us one of the hosts Poland, 2004 surprise winners Greece, 2008 darlings Russia, and the Czech Republic.

Poland is a case of good news bad news. The good news is this is a really easy group; the bad news: they're the lowest ranked team in the tournament. There aren't a lot of household names in this squad outside of goalkeeper Szczesny so it looks like that home cooking will really have to pull them through. I'm not saying that they will crash out, but anything beyond a little feistiness in defeat would be a moral victory.

What is there to say about Greece? The country is falling apart and many of these players have no idea where they will be playing their club ball next year. This could either be a huge distraction or a unifying/ motivating force to propel this team on another Cinderella run like the one from 8 years ago. The have plenty of firepower up front with Gekas and Giorgios Samaras; if those two are firing it could be enough to secure a spot in the knock-out rounds. Other than that they will look to play strong defensive football and absorb their opponent's possession with the likes of the ancient Karagounis in the midfield and the Papadopoulis brothers in defense.

I think that Russia will be one of the favorites to make it out of this relatively easy group, but don't expect a run like the one in 2008. Like the Greeks they have good firepower in the front, at least on paper, with Arshavin, Pavlyuchenko, and Pogrebnyak. Their midfield strength will rest on the shoulders of perpetual next big thing Alan Dzagoev, who is still only 21. Unlike Greece, there is not a lot of defense in this side, with the exception of Yuri Zhirkov and keeper Igor Akinfeev. They definitely got lucky with their draw, the question will be how the Russian season will affect their domestic based players. Will they be rested and ready, or will they be off form?

Lastly there's the Czechs. I think this is the team to beat from the group. From front to back they are the most talented and most experienced. Milan Baros, Tomas Rosicky, are definitely the offensive engine here. And Petr Cech is in the form of his life after many had written him off as finished. If they can keep the team around them focused that should be enough to bring them to their doom in the next round. As you can tell I don't think highly of this group, so I don't think the two teams advancing will be much of a match for any other team in the knock-out round. But this Czech team could take advantage of a weak group, and the fact that in modern international football having a team identity puts you miles ahead of the competition, to make it as group winners.

Who do you like winning this Group of Life (since it's got to be the opposite of a Group of Death)?

MJ: Hosting the party never turns out to be as much fun as it ought to be, the same is true in the world of soccer. UEFA or FIFA, depending on the competition, require rather expensive infrastructure renovations and obligatory accommodations all paid for by said host nation. Sure, Poland will be getting a cut of the gate, and its hoteliers, restauranteurs, pub and nightclub owners are salivating, but the professional guests are coming with intentions of trashing the place. Automatic qualification to the group stage enough to appease the fans? I'd say so, plus the world loves an underdog. Even in this categorically easy group, Poland have their work cut out for them. The man who could help diminish the damage is betweeen the sticks, Wociech Szcezny. He kept 18 clean sheets last season for Arsenal, and given the Gunner's notoriously self-capitulating defense that is quite impressive. A little over a 1/3rd chance to keep a clean sheet at club level means Poland do in fact have a shot of progressing second in the group if they play smartly (10-1 formation) and nick a few on the counter.

A conservative 4-3-3? Never heard of it, until brushing up on Greece's manager, Fernando Santos. When you think 4-3-3, one club comes to mind in this current era; Barcelona. Free flowing 500 pass match stuff, with all the pace and skill to punish a team. That 4-3-3 does not lend itself to Greece's squad. Captained by a thirty-five year old journeyman, Giorgos Karagounis, the greek Xavi, the team is going to have to capitalize on being in the Group of Life and earning a few squeeky results. Sure they were champions in 2004 but England won the World Cup in 1966, how is that for repeat status? You shouldn't wager Greece progress to the knockout round unless you think the payout would make for a fun night out.

It gets slightly better when you look at the Czech Republic camp. A rejuvenated Tomas Rosicky and a seemingly eternal Petr Cech should be enough spark in the front and concrete at the back to at least claim second in the group. If you tip Poland to improbably progress, than you must think the Czech Republic can make a deep run based on goal keeping alone. Petr Cech just won his first UEFA Champion's league. Maybe he needs a vacation after staving off Barcelona and then Bayern Munich? Or maybe his already ever confident keeping will be even more heightened. Back to the front half of the formation is Tomas Rosicky. After a few horrific injuries the little engine that could is back. He was an integral part of Arsenal claiming third place in the Barclay's Premier league; taking on defenders when no one else would, threading a few needles, and sticking it in the onion bag himself a few times. In the twilight of his career, look for another performance circa to the 2006 WC which made the world outside of Dortmund speak his name.

Nostrovia! The Russians are coming. The Group of Life selection could not have been more fortunate to our underachieving Rusky friends (don't spit out your vodka we know they made it to the semi's in Euro 2008). Names like Arshavin, Pavyluchenko, and up and comer Dzaegov should be enough to top the group or at worst for the Russian perception come in second. However, their world class keeper Akinfeev is hardly fit and may not even feature. It is not 2008 or 2010 for that matter. Arshavin and Pavy who tore onto the scene during Euro 2008 are 4 years older. Ask any Arsenal fan if Andrei Arshavin is a hard worker. Ask any Tottenham fan how many times Pavyluchenko has air mailed a strike into row ZZ? These fans might not even be able to comment. Arshavin had limited minutes for Arsenal this year and after being loaned to Zenit St. Petersburg has improved, but does that make the little playmaker a game changer? Pavyluchenko staving off injury and clawing for appearanes also has a few spots of rust on his chassis. Okay, so it is up to some wash ups and a kid, Dzaegov, whose head is probably in the clouds dreaming of playing for a top european club. Alright, this really is the Group of Life.

Stay tuned fans! Next we preview the Group B, which promises to be the most fascinating group of the tournament, followed by Groups C and D.

What A Difference A Week Makes

Last week I was ready to write off the Oklahoma City Thunder's title chances.  Could the team get to the finals? Yes, absolutely.  But in their first game last Saturday against defending champion Dallas Mavericks they looked like a team that was still a little overawed by the big stage that is the playoffs.  Sure they won the game, but it seemed as though the previous two years of playoff experience was out the window and they were already panicking.  It looked like Dallas had set the blueprint for how to beat them: make them fall in love with shooting jump shots.  The NBA playoffs are all about attacking the basket, this is not a new revelation.  When you have players attacking the basket one of two things happen: the player attacking gets a high percentage shot (dunk, lay-up, foul shots), or the defense collapses/rotates and it frees someone else up for an open look.

 Last Saturday OKC's devastating combo of three-time scoring champ Kevin Durant and all-star point guard Russel Westbrook had a lot of trouble with Dallas's zone and fell back into shooting midrange jumpers.  Many were contested and many bricked.  It's why the final score didn't even break 100.  But the Thunder still won.  Thanks to a midrange jumper from Durant.  That play sums up the entire game.  And despite the Thunder win, the performance did not seem like one of a team that was one of the favorites to win the title.

Fast forward one week.  The Thunder are the first team to book their place in the second round with a sweep of the defending champs.  The close out game sent a message.  They were on the road in a game where everything seemed to break for the Mavericks.  Defensive anchor Kendrick Perkins left in the first half with a hip strain, never to return.  No one could top Dirk.  The Mavs were shooting 63% from 3pt range late in the 3rd quarter.  Durant was struggling, Westbrook non-existant, Ibaka (the soul of their defense) was in foul trouble.  Derek Fisher was putting in a lot of minutes.

And yet the Thunder, down 13 with less than 10 minutes left and no momentum at all came back and won thanks to an amazing performance by Sixth-Man of the Year candidate James Harden who scored 7 in a row, and 15 of his team high 29 points in the final frame.  He was attacking the rim and either finishing or passing off to teammates for easy points.  And the defense stepped up.  This play gave the Thunder the lead they would never relinquish and was indicative of the extra intensity the team brought in crunch time.

This win shows that the Thunder can be a champion; as the old saying goes if you want to be the best you have to beat the best.  The somehow created a win in a hostile environment, playing the defending champs who were desperate to avoid an embarrassing first round sweep, with all the breaks going against them, their two best offensive players struggling, and their two best defensive players less than 100%.  They showed they have the talent, the willpower, and the team that cannot be stopped.

Pros vs. Cons

Well the Redskins did it.  They traded three first round picks and a second round pick to move up 4 spots in this year's draft.  Read that sentence again just to let how much they gave up sink in.  The question becomes was this a good idea?

The Pros:  They will almost certainly take Robert Griffin III.  The Redskins need a franchise quarterback. They now have the opportunity to select someone who could be a franchise quarterback.  RG3 had an outstanding year last year.  All reports are the kid has a great head on his shoulders.  But I still have concerns about a few things.  First he played in the Big 12, where even the 3 or 4 winning teams don't play defense.  Second, no one had heard of him until this year because his stats were average.  Third, the one BCS calibre team he played against he put up a stinker in a blowout loss.  Fourth, history shows us that QBs are a strange beast as far as drafting (Chad Pennington went 5 rounds before Tom Brady in 2000).  Fifth: he put up big numbers in a college spread offense which doesn't always translate well (but Cam Newton does give hope).  Sixth, it's the Redskins. So, I am cautiously optimistic.

This is also great because it eliminates the mistake of signing Peyton Manning.  I'll admit I greatly dislike anything with the last name Manning so that has something to do with it.  But it also has something to do with the fact that he is 35 years old coming off of a neck surgery and would be going to a team with a thin offensive line, no receivers, and a secondary that on it's best day is average.  Manning probably has a few more years left in him but probably not enough to give him the huge free agent contract for many years he is going to command on an open market.  Which brings me to my next point.

The Cons:  Was this a good value?  Success in the NFL is all about maximizing production while minimizing cost.  With the new CBA rules on rookie contracts and the general principles of a free market economy drafts are a better, easier way to build and sustain a successful team.  If you cannot bring in cheap talent through drafts you will not be able to win consistently.  Let the Colts be an example.  They were able to cover up four years of bad drafting with Peyton Manning's HOF level play.  As soon as he was gone, the bottom fell out.  I would be surprised if they are back in the playoffs within the next two years (because that would mean Andrew Luck is ridiculous).  The Redskins are now faced with the same problem that kept setting them back when Dan Snyder thought he knew what he was doing: few draft picks (so now the Skins don't even have a chance to whiff on draft picks).  Last year the Redskins used the draft well, trading down to drive down costs and building depth with many picks.  This year, they took the old Snyder route of putting all the eggs in one basket.  Granted, the basket was much needed and fixes the biggest problem, but I wonder if it really was the best solution.  It definitely shows that patience is not in their repertoire.  While they may have gotten the franchise QB, it exacerbates a few other problems.  First: the team completely lacked depth last year.  A few players went down injured (which happens in the NFL) and the wheels came off.  Second: there are huge needs elsewhere on the field (like say receiver, since RG3 can't throw the ball to himself).  The draft is the cost-effective way of fixing these problems.  Now it seems the Redskins will have to go to the free agent market where they will have to overpay for the talent not only this year, but the next two years because a free market with high demand and low supply will always drive the price up.  This has the potential of sabotaging the cap and stunting the development of the team as a model of sustained winning.  Last year, they got it right: draft well, plug gaps with value free agents (it's what teams like the Patriots do and I think it's worked out quite well).  That model will probably have to take a backseat for the next three years (especially since it is highly unlikely the Redskins will get back into the first round.)

So while Griffin may be the franchise quarterback the Redskins so desperately need, it may have been at a cost too much.  I would feel much better if they had only given next year's first round pick away, not the next two years*.  And the Billy Beane in me wishes they had stood pat, and tried to work the system for value (say Kellen Moore in the second or third round where the risk is minimal) and if it meant waiting to get Matt Barkley next year so be it, the team was never one player away from the play-offs this coming season anyway.  But since Shanahan and Bruce Allen did such a good job last year handling the draft and free agency I will give them the benefit of the doubt on this one and hope it's not a flashy move to placate Snyder's ego.

*In 2004 the Giants gave San Diego two first rounds and a third round pick for Eli Manning, who has won two Super Bowls, granted the price arguably was driven down by the fact that baby Manning was pulling a John Elway by throwing a hissy fit and refusing to play for the team that drafted him.


Update:  Just like that, the trade looks incredibly damning.  The big selling point was the amount of money the Redskins had in cap space to sign pieces around RG3.  A league ruling today effectively took that cap space away.  Now the Redskins do not only not have 3 very useful draft picks, but will be seriously limited in their ability to compete in the free agent market.  So no matter how good RG3 is, the team will be hard pressed to surround him with talent to help him succeed.

Review: Awake

Since 2004 network TV has tried to replicate the success of Lost as a sci-fi drama with some mythology with little to no success.*  Where most of those shows failed was where Lost succeeded: developing characters; the temptation was to create this sci-fi wrinkle/ mystery to the show that kept people coming back.  The problem is that if the viewer has no connection or even hates the people wrapped up in the mystery they aren't going to stick around to find out the answer because every week there is no answer people get more and more annoyed.

*NBC has had The Event, ABC threw out V, Flash Forward, and now The River, CBS said why change what's kicking everyone's butt, and Fox canned Firefly and has had moderate success with Fringe.


NBC's new drama Awake seems to have learned the lesson, and it's no surprise that the pilot was very impressive.  The twist of the show is that Jason Isaacs (yes that Jason Isaacs) does not know which reality is reality: the one where his wife survived (played by Laura Allen, who had a stint on last year's Terriers, which if you haven't seen check it out on Netflix, a great character piece set around two not-so-kosher private eyes), or his son (played by Lost alum Dylan Minette, who played Jack's son and is no stranger to parallel universes).  The premise alone lends itself to a need for strong character to super-cede the sci-fi elements.

Writer Kyle Killen demonstrated in the pilot that the idea of grief (and how to cope with it) is just as central to the narrative as the split reality.  The scenes in the competing psychiatrists' offices play an integral role of dealing with Isaacs' Detective Britten as a human being dealing with a very strange and confusing dual realities that bleed into each other, usually for good.*

* Is BD Wong a professional psychiatrist?  He's now played one on 3 shows and nails it every time.


Another nice touch of the show is the contrasting tones in each reality.  We learn early on that red was the wife's favorite color and green the son's.  Consequently the tones in each scene, depending on which reality Britten is in, reflect who survived.  Rex's (the son) reality has a green hue to it while Hannah's (the wife) is more reds.

I think it also helps that the frame of the show is a police procedural.  If Killen really wanted to he could probably run the show for a long time as just a Law & Order: Dual Realities Unit.  It appears that each week there will be two crimes and how Britten pieces together information from both realities will help him solve each.  This leaves the viewer with a sense of satisfaction at the end of an episode instead of only wondering what is the answer to the riddle.  I'm sure (and hoping) that the show develops the cause and effect of the dual realities more, it doesn't seem quite as imperative as finding out just what the V's were on earth for, or why all those people were in that concentration camp in Alaska.

It was definitely a strong start for Awake and it will be interesting to see where the show goes.  If it continues to build on this start it could be around for a while, disproving the myth that all good drama has migrated to cable.

Fool's Gold

I've already dedicated one entry about the Redskins' draft choices but yesterday's breaking news that the Rams are determined to trade their number 2 pick begs me to put my thoughts on what my favorite team should do in the draft out there yet again.

The Redskins are certainly in the running for this pick because Shanahan and new Rams coach Jeff Fisher are long time friends.  And the Skins definitely need a quarterback.  And it appears that the Browns are in the market as well.  So those are the reasons to trade.  Now here are the much more compelling reasons to not.

First, don't let the hype fool you, all that glitters is not gold.  RGIII is not a sure thing.  For starters, his stats didn't become elite until this year.  He NEVER played against elite competition.  I'm sorry but the Big 12 has been an after thought these past few seasons.  Yes, they have had BCS participants, but not a single legitimate title contender until this year (when Nick Saban's self-dealing kept OSU out of the title game).  And in his one game against that elite team Griffin was less than impressive throwing more picks than TDs in a blowout loss (and OSU did not have an elite defense by any stretch of the imagination).  So while this past season was incredible, and he deservingly won the Heisman, his body of work does not speak to automatic success in the NFL (the list of flash in the pan, one good season for a Heisman NFL flameouts is long and storied: Eric Crouch, Tim Couch, Ron Dayne, Jason White).

I also look at history of drafts with two QBs that out pace the class.  Most notably, the 1998 draft where we had Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.  Manning, clearly was a success.  Leaf was a success, at picking up a pill problem.  The only comparison I am drawing between Leaf and Griffin is that hype, desperation, competition pulled a QB with obvious flaws higher than he should have gone.  1998, like 2012 had what appeared to be a 1 and a 1A QB not necessarily because the talents were equatable, but because teams were drawn to the flash on the surface and the sense of those two then a serious drop off and talent.  It lead to inflated evaluations.  And the media helped because it became a good story: who will the Colts take Manning or Leaf.  They have the same story today: Luck or Griffin.

Would I be mad if the Redskins drafted Griffin?  Absolutely not, he has loads of talent.  What will be infuriating, given the huge holes at other positions (like receiver which is not a quick fix, especially not in free agency), and the new CBA's cap on rookie salaries, would be if the Redskins revert back to their old habits of shipping draft picks out and mortgaging the future for a flashy splash that fills one hole by making two more.  So, if the price is right, trade up, but a huge compensation is not worth it given the needs elsewhere, the cheap free agent market, and the ease at which an elite QB can be formed from a later round draft pick (see. Drew Brees, Tom Brady).

Good To Be Back

No I'm not referring to the first week of spring semester law school.  I'm referring to regularly scheduled programming.  This week marked the official return of the network TV comedies you know and love (Although CBS had to bump it's Monday night line-up's return a week early because of some exhibition football game and Modern Family should probably have chucked it's episode last week).

Earlier in the fall I did a rundown of many of my favorite shows on their premiere, and this week has the same feel.  But because of the previous piece (and having written a piece on the best comedy on TV a few weeks ago for another publication) I'm just going to focus on one return I found particularly satisfying: 30 Rock.

This could be because 30 Rock was in fact a true premiere.  NBC pushed back 30 Rock's premiere for two reasons: the main was that Tina Fey had a baby.  The second was it was trying to rescue Community (which deserves rescuing let this and this serve as an example) and promote Whitney (which rightfully has been relegated to the Wednesday death slot because the same "I hate relationships but I like relationships" joke can only be done about once, maybe).

Tonight's episode was a great return.  It wasn't a great episode, but it was a great return.  Sometimes a show doesn't have to blow your mind, or reach the zenith of comedy to be good (Parks and Rec is the master of this, even it's "bad" shows have a way of making you feel good).  30 Rock was just what it needed to be, 30 Rock.  A goofy, satirical take on life on a TV show by Tina Fey.  It was very familiar plotlines: Jenna and Tracy battling about fame, Kenneth being a crazy hillbilly.  But there were some good twists tonight.  For example John McEnroe being a happy-go-lucky celeb judge on a crappy singing contest. 

I'm not quite sure what the Jack/Liddy plot confusing "mommy" with "money" was all about, except maybe to reinforce that Jack really is the perfect executive: money is what matters.  But the last plot line was so good it made up for it.  They've done the Liz Lemon tries to change/ be happy/ not stress over everyone else's selfishness before.  But in the past she eventually collapses and Jack teaches her a lesson in management.  This time he didn't get the best of her (even though he figured her out).  What was even better was the mystery added to the end.  It was definitely great to see her genuinely happy especially the hilarity that ensued at finding out what made her happy (and the tag was amazing).

So it was great to have you back TGS with Tracy Jordan.  Your hijinx have been missed.

What the Redskins Need

Well another season of ineptitude has come and gone for my beloved Washington Redskins.  Now it's time to think about the future, and the immediate future is the NFL draft.  The Skins will be drafting Number 6.  The question becomes what do they need: QB, WR, DB, OL are the concerns (ranked from most important).

Obviously a Quarterback is a must.  You cannot win in today's NFL without solid QB play (see Brees, Drew, Rodgers, Aaron, even Stafford, Matthew).  The Broncos are a prime example: Tebow manages the game they win; Tebow is wildly inaccurate and turns the ball over they lose.  The Redskins have not had a manageable QB since Mark Brunell and haven't had a decent QB since Brad Johnson (although it's pretty clear they gave up on Jason Campbell too early and stupidly for an aging former superstar).  Rex Grossman should never put on a Redskins jersey again as he single-handedly destroyed any hopes the Skins had of being competitive with his inability to simply manage the game: completion percentage under 60%, 20 INTs, 6 fumbles lost (26 turnovers and he didn't even play in 3 games!).  So the most obvious need is a QB, which is good because this draft has a few promising talents to choose from.

The other area of huge concern is WR.  Part of the reason Grossman was so inefficient is there were few weapons on offense.  Santana Moss is one of my favorite Redskins of all time, but he cannot play forever and he's only 5'10 (at best).  Jabar Gaffney should never be anyone's number one receiver.  Ever.  And Fred Davis and Chris Cooley are great threats when on the field, they are both tight ends who are not going to stretch the field. 

The big concern is that this draft is not deep on WR especially since the conventional wisdom is that a great college receiver almost rarely translates into a great NFL one.  The main problem is that there is very little press coverage in college because a great college team has one maybe two pro-level corners.  So the WRs who tend to translate well can deal with the physical play of pro defensive backs.  The smart thing to do is to not waste a high round pick on a receiver, especially since even the best tend to take a year to adjust. 

That being said, with the depth at quarterback, and the lack of depth at wide receiver makes for an interesting situation.  Of the teams in front of the Skins one can assume Indy will take Luck (or a near contender will mortgage its future to take the pick from the Colts, something the Redskins shouldn't even think of doing).  The Rams, Vikings and Bucs all have young QBs they would be foolish to give up on.  The Browns could go QB, but it remains to be seen if they are giving up on Colt McCoy (who was a second rounder, so not a huge loss to do that).  So it appears the Redskins would have the pick of whatever QB they wanted.  I'm not as sold on RG3 as everyone else, since it is only this past season where he found accuracy in a conference not known for defense.  Likewise all the other big name QBs come from the Big 12, which I don't find a good bench mark for anything (Jason White, Heisman trophy winner, 0 passes attempted in the NFL). 

The one QB that does get me excited in Kellen Moore.  Most scouts probably kill him for his size and his competition.  But every game I've watched him play, he is smart, accurate, careful, and picking apart vaunted programs like Virginia Tech and Georgia.  Everyone said Drew Brees was too small; I'm not saying, I'm just saying.  But Moore could be had in later rounds most likely.

An interesting thought for the Skins is to trade down a slot or two for either more picks and take one of the two receivers who look like they could make the jump to professional football the easiest: Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd.  Both are very good route runners and just get the ball into their hands no matter what.  But the more important part is the maturity.  Both have had off-field issues (DUIs) but both seem to have learned from it (if this doesn't make you believe in Blackmon as a person, you have no heart), and all reports about Floyd is that he took proactive steps to clean his life up (moving into the freshmen dorms to keep out of trouble), which takes a lot of maturity. 

Those are three players I think the Redskins should look at carefully.  Obviously the quarterback is the priority, but the Skins can always use more draft picks.  Since there is one sure-thing QB and a bunch of really close to sure-things, I hope the Skins take their time and try to think creatively with this draft.  A smart strategy is a must, and I'm sure the people working on it are working hard and are probably smarter than me (unless Snyder is in on it).  The big point I want to make is there are alternatives to making an impulse choice with that 6th pick, if time is taken to look at what traits have made current QBs successful and what they looked like coming out of college.*

*Of the QBs in the playoffs the only 4 drafted in the top 10 are largely considered the worst: Manning, Ryan, Smith, and Stafford, while the best 4 the highest drafted, Roethlisberger (11th overall) is probably considered not as good as Brady (6th Rd) or Brees (2nd Rd.) and the man with the title belt, Rodgers, was 25th overall.